Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : General Magic -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ray Rueb who wrote (3660)	9/1/1998 10:09:00 PM
From: Ray Rueb	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10081

When will we hit bottom? I am convinced we will hit bottom exactly when the MM decides he's ready to change his position from short to long. How will you know when this occurs? Here are some excerpts from a guy name William Epstein who posts on the Seagate board. He claims to be an former specialist. I find his words interesting... << there is always the possibility that the specialist may make a new bottom in an effort to inspire panic selling and force the margin accounts to dump at a big loss. They often do this, in order, to supply stock to cover their short interest. I think, it depends on the available supply. Remember, that even though they covered 17%, as of 8/15 they still have more than 5 million shorts to cover. There is really no such thing as a support level. In any case, any way you want to measure it, the stock is cheap. Look at Seagate's abnormal volume. Unless the specialist wants to spark a huge sell off he can't go much lower. Even if these guys are wrong and he goes lower tomorrow it won't be very much lower. On a chart this price is near the bottom of the barrel. That's where guts come into play because most people are running for the hills and the bottom or near bottom. It is a strange phenomenon about human psychology that people jump in near the top and out near the bottom. There is a term for a sell off "capitulation". I'm sure you have heard it. It signifies the point that most investors give up and exit at a loss. Caused by fear. Also, I beg you to look at last month's short interest. This stock reduced short interest last month by almost 17%. Well, the specialist did it again. He is getting positioned to go long for the Fall. I have been watching the action in Seagate, in real time, very closely. The bids and asked were way out of wack until the stock dipped below 17. Then the bids came back to outnumber the asks. Now they seem to be holding. It may be temporary but it seems that there is some support at 17. I don't know how long it will hold. I could say there is still no panic selling yet because not a great deal of stock is changing hands. At the low the blocks were still small. A few thousand shares at a time. This seems to public buying and selling. The specialist hasn't stepped in yet. I can't blame you for wanting to get the best price for your dollar. However, you are playing a game that I think, we have all played. The timing game. Most of us lose at this game because we are playing it against professionals (unfair?). Of course, I mean the specialists. The English have a saying I like "You can't beat a man at his own game.". There is a reason they are the pros. They are not stupid. They know that there are a million little guys like you and me out there, watching what they do. They have several tricks to doal with us. Very often when the specialist is hitting bottom he opens a trap door and drops the price precipitously for from 10 minutes to 2 hours. Then the price shoots back up to its former levels. When this happens a huge block crosses the board and then it's over. The stock often finishes the day at a higher price than the previous close. Often you can't get the stock even when you right on top of the trading because they won't execute your order until later. They are still within the rules. They simply offer the excuse that no stock was available at that moment. You don't really think that specialists will share their price level with anyone, do you? This often happens at the moment they go long or go short. It is an indicator that the specialist has changed his position. >>