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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (537)	9/1/1998 11:24:00 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Why not just look at some key issues looming in the near future? There could have been one big threat for the dollar... If the coming Euro was expected to be an iron currency tied to a stringent monetary policy then we could have anticipated a shift from the dollar to the Euro. But such a scenario would put too painful a burden on the diverse European populaces. And there'll be several antagonisms inside the European Central Bank: don't expect the French --along with their silent allies: Spain, Italy, int. al-- to shut up and swallow the German pill! This ECB will not be like the US Fed. Reserve: the latter has only one boss, hence one voice: Chairm. A. Greenspan. Of course, other board members might pipe up some comment from time to time... but when it comes to the final word, everybody looks at Greenspan. What will be the authority of the 1st ECB chairman, W. Duisenberg when contradicted by his designated successor, J.-Cl. Trichet? See how the ECB governance will be much more ''controversial'' than its US counterpart's? Further, as soon as Germany digested its reunification with East Germany, came the Russian burden waiting 'round the corner! And Germany will not be able to escape the rescuing of Russia --if it wants to secure its widespread investments in Eastern Europe. Therefore, we can see that the Euro will face a twofold challenge: political instability outside Europe (Russia) and political conflicts inside Europe as far as the ECB board members are concerned. Turning ourselves to Asia, what do we see? A Japanese archipelago unable to handle an economic leadership in the region, struggling with a bankrupted financial sector and an obsolete industry! Remember how Japan was apprehended in the 1980s: at that time the Japanese computer industry was acknowledgedly working on the so-called 5th-generation computers. It was expected to be the world leader in Computer/ITs in the XXIst century... And today, where's Japan in cyberspace? Is there a kana ideogram for cyberspace? Big problems ahead in this area also.