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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (6070)	9/1/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Respond to of 9980

Will Yeltsin be couped? The timebomb is ticking.............. Today's global intelligence update (I'm sure most on this thread get it) reports that the russian army's morale is at an all time low. Having not been paid in 5 months, the soldiers are likely to turn their backs on Yeltsin should he command them to maintain calm in the event of civil unrest. And Clinton is powerless to stave off the communists. They smell blood - this is their best and maybe their last chance to seize power since the failed coup on Gorby, and they know it. Look for Yeltsin to be couped/shot/exiled within the next week or two. This is by far the most interesting development going on in the world right now. Also, a Yeltsin coup should knock at least 10% of the U.S. markets, though I read one article yesterday from a journalist who expects a market rally should Yeltsin resign or be couped. This is ludicrous. The author, comparing a possible resignation to Hashimoto's, fails to realize that as incompetent as Yeltsin is, he's basically all we have over there to be optimistic about. A resignation or coup translates into the destruction of almost 15 years of hard work and money spent on our part. Both the Republicans and the Democrats are to blame for this one. The Dems for once again failing to perform in foreign affairs, and the Repubs for stonewalling the aid russia needed just weeks ago. Now that $40B price tag offered last week for temporary calm has soared, as we foolishly closed the national wallet in our friends' most dire hour of need. Reports mention that on the eve prior to the default, Yeltsin and Co. called the U.S. and all other G7 nations, begging for the $40B but we all said no. Remember that move forever, because not only has it burned the global marketplace in the short term, it's long term effects are still to come, and the forecast is grim. In their usual classy manner, the Repubs will use this event as election ammo for the next pres. race. They'll run ads saying "you can thank the Dems for allowing Russian to return to communism, reinstating a once subdued nuclear threat, not to mention the 20% that their actions knocked off your 401K." But I'll remember that Gingrich is as guilty on this tragedy as Clinton. Hey, how 'bout dollar/yen? Look's like more and more institutions are liquidating their most profitable position to meet domestic margin calls. I can't think of any other reason for the rally, especially with all the money pouring into U.S. Govt. Secs. The whole weakening of the dollar because of worries over a recession argument is silly. It's got to be the big boys dumping. There's alot of money to be made by shorting the yen after these rough global waters calm.....It's more than 10 yen off the high. Also, it's very bearish how we failed to rally Friday and today after thursday 's and yesterday's big drops, meaning the next day we should have recovered at least half the prior day's loss. I called my fund company yesterday to check the NAV and they immediately asked me if I wanted to redeem my shares. If that many people are redeeming, then I wouldn't hunt for bargains yet because funds need cash to meet redemptions, and most had little or none.