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Gold/Mining/Energy : Varco (VRC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Caradonna who wrote (23)	9/2/1998 12:03:00 AM
From: Braddock Bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63

No, but brave enough to hold Hey Peter... I think I remember you from the ESOL thread long ago? Like many, I totally mis-timed my entry into Oil Services a month or so ago and have gotten just creamed. Call me stupid, but I'm not going to capitulate at this level. These stocks will be back... I think we'll see nice pop if crude prices can hold above $14 for a couple weeks (which I expect later this month or early Oct). But unfortunately at this point, I need more than just a "pop". In a recent email exchange with Varco's CFO, I was told: 1. The book value is approximately $5/share 2. One cancellation was spelled-out in the Q2 Report, other than that, there has been no change in the backlog from June 30th. 3. New orders for Q3 will probably be slightly less than revenue. Oversold? Screaming value play? Possibly the most undervalued sector in the whole market? No doubt in my opinion. The big buyers are going to need to see oil stabilize over $14 for one... they'll definitely start nibbling then. The real factor here though is still going to be over on the demand side. If Asia/Japan can show even the slightest hint of a comeback for '99, this sector will see a tremendous rally in my opinion and we'll all look back and wonder why we didn't load up the truck with drillers and service companies. But until that day, I'm watching from my shell.. Mr Long Term. Good luck. Brad