To: Kushi Kullar who wrote (5550 ) 9/1/1998 12:32:00 PM From: Rocketman Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9719
Hard to judge in some ways. One of the classic dilemmas, especially for biotechs (as opposed to Pharmas), of scaling up is that you need to make material for your Phase 3 clinicals years in advance of when you will get approval. This is typically done in a pilot level process and quite often on by contract manufacturers. Then, many years later when you have the confidence that you will get approval and you can raise the cash to do it, you build up to a commercial production capability. Well, the FDA Catch 22 is that your clinical trials have been conducted on stuff that was produced in the pilot level facility, not in the final full production facility, and there are always "changes" to the process. So in the case of an Aviron, they can be hit with another round of clinicals late in the game to prove that what they make now is just as good as what they made before. The reality of this, is that in the vast majority of cases it is anal BS footdragging by the FDA pencil pushers who have no concern for medical advances, but who love to jerk around companies and create work for FDA pencil pushers like themselves - got to have those i's dotted and t's crossed. Now, this is not usually as much of an issue for a major Pharma as they have the money AND the production facilities that they can use to create the clinical batches in and once the approval is made can produce the production stuff identically. In my mind this could come down to a filing of more paperwork, with little delay OR a filing of more paperwork with another clinical trial with lots of delay OR maybe even a filing of more paperwork with some sort of followup Phase 4 clinical with a conditional approval. One thing in Aviron's favor, sort of, is that the 1999-2000 flu season is expected to be a really nasty one and kill lots of people. Maybe the FDA will get a clue and not kill people trying to save them from ghosts which don't exist....but I'm not optimistic. The FDA prides themselves on being removed from reality, politics, the needs of the people and the forces of nature and just focusing on the paperwork and making sure those i's and t's are correct. When you run a dictatorship, flexibility is not required. I do disagree with V1 and do not think it will tank lower. This was a classic dead cat bounce this morning and a panic rush for the exits, which creates the self fulfilling flush in the stock price. Sanity will prevail when the reality sets in that there is nothing wrong with this product, but that they are just up against the typical FDA stonewalling and resistance to approving anything. Keep in mind that the more the FDA can hold up and make more work for companies, that the more jobs the FDA can provide to examiners and thus the existing ones go up the ladder in seniority. There is no incentive for the FDA examiners to be reasonable. Rman