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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (7535)	9/1/1998 3:36:00 PM
From: Bill Shepherd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

< I would assume that his timing model would make him call a bear market. After all, what the purpose of the model?> I look forward to Bob's explanation as to why his model missed this downdraft. Granted, the explanation could have something to do with the unpredictability of investor psychology and/or the unforseeable impacts from foreign events, but nevertheless, I think we are owed an explanation. Bob has bashed the bears for a long time, and he clearly missed this one. Moreover, by virtue of selling his model (via his newsletter and his radio show) he is suggesting that it is credible. Perhaps in his efforts to catch yet another "buy on the dip" opportunity, his heretofor uncanny ability to predict such dips was clouded by these events. The many investors (myself included) who jumped in with all available cash at DOW 8600 are certainly now staring at a sizable unrealized loss. While this loss may be short lived if the market recovers quickly, it is still annoying to watch it unfold. I would like to hear Bob explain how this caught him by surprise! Regards...Bill S

To: stock bull who wrote (7535)	9/2/1998 11:12:00 AM
From: David Bogdanoff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

SB and K and all; I questioned his rhetoric, not his credibility, which I respect and have observed for over 10 years. Interestingly, Abby Cohen has also remained a bull for many years and was inteviewed Monday on CNBC. Her views pretty much agree with BB's from what I could tell, but her rhetoric did not involve deriding those who disagree with her market calls(and there are many). I respect the ability to put across ones viewpoint in a professional manner. Indeed, it is too soon to know if this is a correction or a bear market; I don't feel that BB sufficiently warned us it was comeing, whatever it turns out to be. In regards to market models, Ralph Acampora made a market call presumably based on his own model and it came close to being right in a few days and may yet prove to be right. Of course, I understand that some of BB's rhetoric is for entertainment value, much needed in a 3 hour investment program. In regards to the fundamentals changing, people like Yardeni think that they have changed. Recently, he stated that we are in a period of disinflation (BB sees only low inflation), which puts us in a bear market( best as I can recall his views). Its a matter of judgment as to which fundamentals to focus on, and how to judge them. What concerns me is that new factors are now on the scene which were not factors when BBs model was developed. Political instabilities are strongly affecting the market now and economic instabilities are not being cured by IMF measures. I think the value of this thread is in sharing critical thinking, not in adulation of a guru. Best, David