To: Charles Hughes who wrote (20795 ) 9/1/1998 2:30:00 PM From: Reginald Middleton Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24154
<Earnings and assets will now for a time be the sine qua non for investing, as always in downturns.> Accounting earnings are for those who do no know any better, Chaz. I suggest you read the Case Against Earnings article. <I'm glad to see you haven't completely lost your self confidence, in spite of all your models becoming do-do in the ongoing bear market we are now in.> This is not a bear market. You should know better than that. My "models" as you call them (most call it common sense, but to each his/her own)are right on point. Either you read up on them or refrain from casting inaccurate info. That might of came out a little more aggressive than I meant it to be, but you are saying things (possibly innocently, so I put in a disclaimer) that are not true. <As I say, you need 300 split-adjusted to be right at this point. Which you are not going to get until sometime the next century, if ever.> Let's see here. I made the comment in March (or close to it) of '96. MSFT was in the 40's or 50's then. Using the SI charts on a split adjusted basis, MSFT has went from 23 to 120 (or 100 if you count the recent correction). Including the correction, MSFT is up 435%. I think that is lot more than you would have guessed (without my models of course). Now, 435% of $50 dollars is about.... $217. Okay, I was off by a few dollars. It happens with fuzzy guesstimates. You should be congradulating me on accurate insight. Most of you were boosting NSCP in direct contravention to my opinions on the same (if you remember the string of puts I told everybody to purchase when NSCP was at $86). You see where that story went. I also said a value of 600 would not be irrational, not price. If you read my stuff, you would know there is a difference. If you want to see a price of 600, split MSFT up into several companies - %600 will probably be a low ball price. Especially if they are gobbled by other companies. Well, enough defending myself. If nothing of import will be posted to the thread, I shall lurk in silence.