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Gold/Mining/Energy : Anvil Resources (V.ANV) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: overbyte who wrote (1871)	9/2/1998 2:51:00 PM
From: Buckey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2214

I rarely post anymore and am out excpet for 500 shares left from a partial fill. I noticed the related links link at the top which I have not used in months and to my surprise BZZ was on the list as second exchange2000.com

To: overbyte who wrote (1871)	9/5/1998 6:33:00 PM
From: SAM-DAN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2214

We have not posted for a while as were waiting for the News Release as had pretty well given out or seen posted any relevant info that our sources had given us.We use outside sources for most of our info ,except were Anvil has released information to the public that confirms what our sources have told us.Now that the Releases are out we feel free to add our thoughts to all the frantic or reasoned postings that have occured since the release and after contacting our sources to try and put things into perspective. A couple of points first before we get down to the release facts and our feelings re the company's future.First we do not blame the original negative reaction to the news release.The reported gas flow was far below what we believed was the potential flow rate from the frac of the third zone [more on this later] Of even more disappointment was the fact that Anvil released on Friday after the market closed.After the disasterous fall in the stock price when they released news on a weekend of the second frac failure, we thought they had learned their lesson not to release on a Friday. We have learned however that their hand was forced by Polymet who issued their release regarding the Voisey property sale, so that Anvil[who had not planned to say anything until Tuesday] was forced to release the Voisey news on Friday. They also decided, once they received the "disappointing"[we will discuss this later as well] flow rate from the third zone, that they should release it on Friday so as to allow more knowlegable people who understand gas geology and Texas well behaviour to analyse the results and be prepared for the expected negative response to the result.As well they felt that to release the flow result on Tuesday would probably cause the ASE to halt trading in the stock which they felt would intensify any negative implications for the Company and its stock price. Having said the above and giving credence to the explanation regarding the timing of the press release, we are still left with a very poor[in our opinion] drafted release.Where is the PR input into their release.We will detail soon , based on our sources information , all the positive implications of the facts implicit in their release which we feel could have been included to mitigate the negative conclusions that are being drawn by those who are long the stock or those who wish to short the stock.We do not sit in judgement of either camp but we feel the release certainly can lead to misguided interpretations which could have been avoided with a proper news release.We have been told that the Company lawyer dictated what the release could contain so that the ASE would not be upset by anything that Anvil said.We have seen many Company releases that contain a "future projection" disclaimer which allows projections which are subject to future events changing projections and which the exchanges have accepted for filing.Either the ASE does not allow such disclaimers or Anvil needs a new lawyer. Enough on these really minor long term considerations, lets get to what the release, left out concerning the future prospects for this first Target well. We start with the public statement by Anvil that the third zone flowed at 1.5mcft after perforation and before fracing.Our sources say that a successful frac can increase flow rates anywhere from 3 to 6 multiples.And we posted our predictions based on the conservative projecion that they would achieve at least a 5mcft flow after well cleanout.Apparently a new mixture of frac material[compared to the first frac material and after the failure of the frac material used in the second zone]and also a different technique of injecting the frac material was used on this third zone.Anvil was very enthused about the reports from the field that this had been a "textbook frac" and they anticipated a very succesful flow rate result.Then the rains came and delays occured again.Once they were able to start cleaning out the well they realized that not only was the frac material taking longer to clean out then they anticipated, but that a large quantity of frac material had apparently gotten below the plug into the second zone.As clean out progressed they also realized that perhaps as much as 30 days more would have to be endured[at$1600.00 minimum a day] to pay for the clean up crew. From our sources , a plan was then deviced to accomplish two important factors.One continue the clean up, but also to accelerate the connection of the gas flow to the collection system to start cash flow to the company as soon as possible.This was to be done [according to C.L,Perkins, not uncommon in Texas]by placing a separator at the well sight which would remove the frac material as it left the flow pipe and allow the clean gas to go to the collections system Cost of renting a separator is much less that $1600.00 a day.In order to have sufficient pressure behind the frac material to force it out of the well[without the gas going around it] the Anvil experts decided that a 1/4 inch choke[16/64] which is a very small size would be utilized. They still felt that although frac material was still flowing at 6 barrels an hour they had to flow test the third zone before pulling the plug and expected a significant increase in the flow rate.WRONG! Obviously the frac material is still so prominent that it is obsructing the flow volumes from the zone.Much like a clogged coronary artery can cause a heart attack.[Which we hope this news relese didn't cause in any stockholders]But Anvil had to report this material fact and so we have that info in the news release. What wasn't in the release[ and we feel stongly that it should have been in the release] is the FACT that as the frac material does finally get cleared out of these zones the flow rate can and will increase substantially .To quote Mr.Perkins, who in no way is connected to Anvil, but is a shareholder and whom we hold in high esteem for his unbiased and superior knowledge in these area"The single most important thing to keep re-iterating is that this is a 4.5 mmmcf/day well; this makes it successful, commercial and PROFITABLE even before any additional flow increases start appearing and I believe that they will.In fact, I will state here and now that once the cleaning process concludes and the three zones are put on a more productive choke[our point, the 1/4"choke will be replaced by a wider diamoeter after cleaning to allow a greater flow rate] 8 mmcft/day is within reason."He also goes on to state that the fact that frac material entered the second zone may stimulate a greater flow rate from that zone as well but cannot quantify that increase until the plug is removed and testing is done. So now we can better access where we are.We know we have for sure 4.5mmcft which at .22 per mmcft gives us a cash flow of $240,000.00 per month with a possibility that this could double if our projections of the flow rate is accurate.This from a play that started eons ago[4months] when all we had was a drill going in the Texas desert that could have been dry.We know,although again Anvil wouldn't say in their release, that in 2-3 weeks we should be connected to a gas collection system which within 30 days after connection will start the cash flow Anvil needs.We know [but not when] that Anvil will start the second Target well.Our sources believe as part of the commitment to Cordelle [sic] the drilling ,if not the frac, has to be completed by the end of November and that the Third Target well once completed will not only give us a 3-d picture of the whole field so that all targets and off-sets will be more easily identified but that Texas Banks will then finance all other drilling.This should enable Anvil to accelerate the drill program by having multiple rigs drilling to prove out the field and accelerate the cash flow geometrically. You place a value on the stock with this knowledge.Remembering that Murphy's Law seems to have a special affinity to Anvil.But, given time,Anvil seems to be able to overcome these trials.If you are in for the short run ,good luck.If in for the long run ,time will look after the luck factor as the gas [and oil] is there to be developed. Re Voisey Bay.No work on the property will be done until Texas has been developed to its potential.By then ,Inco will have settled with Newfoundland and Falconbridge or Teck or someone else will be happy to J/V if necessary.POM's decision, for whatever reason, gave Anvil a fantastic opportunity to buy 60% of the property for which they had already paid 1 million dollars for 40%, for an additional $75,000.00 and 250,000 shares.Good money after bad? Only time will tell but their geologists feel they are on the motherlode.But that Nickel ,if there, isn't going anywhere and Anvil can investigate at their liesure.Remember they would have had to invest $330,000.00 by next March to gain another 10 %.The coincidence of both releases on the same day, makes it appear that Anvil has divided priorities.A statement from J.Lenec clarifying his priorities would certainly help shareholders in their decisions and we can't believe the ASE would object to such a statement. Its up to Anvil to illuminate for shareholders ,their plans if they want to retain our confidence. The PP would be much less dilutive . , if it is necessary at all, with a higher stock price and that stock price will not be higher if Anvil does not keep its shareholders properly informed on the Company"s holdings and objectives. Over to you ANVIL!!