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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lee who wrote (543)9/2/1998 10:38:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3536
 
To all:

A follow-up to the recent discussion on the dollar. I read the following in this morning's WSJ by Bear Stearn's economist David Malpass.

I sense a growing movement toward talking the dollar down which may add to the economic reasons for a coming dollar decline, IMO.

Throughout it all, the U.S. has had no policy that would deal with the heart of the global currency problem: a strong dollar and a cycle of devaluations. The current Band-Aid approach included the following elements: Until further notice, all developing countries are to keep interest rates dramatically higher than they can afford, spreading recession across the developing world. Economies that link their currencies to the U.S. dollar-important ones such as Argentina, Brazil, China and Hong Kong-get no clear guidance on the future value of the greenback. To avoid accountability, the U.S. maintains the fa‡ade that the IMF is dealing with the crisis and that Japan is to blame for much of it. The U.S. encourages countries to enact vague and painful "reforms," never mentioning or forcing the one reform that matters most-a policy of currency stability.

What, if anything, can the U.S. government do to stop the contagion? First, even if it won't cut interest rates, it can state unequivocally that Washington wants the value of the dollar to be stable and will place a high priority on this responsibility. Simply changing from the current "strong dollar" policy to a "stable dollar" policy would allow gold and commodity prices to recover moderately from their current deflation-spooked levels and end the talk of world deflation.


Can you imagine the market effect that such a statement would have?

-Robert