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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (5560)	9/2/1998 1:26:00 AM
From: Rocketman	Respond to of 9719

V1, Harsh assessment! Sounds like you've had a tough week today, and four more days until the weekend....whew. I think what you call a fair value is a bit low given that this could go either way with the FDA. Even if it costs them a year, I think $14 is too low. I could see more like $20. This is going to be a huge product and the technology should be applicable to lots more vaccines, etc.... Hey where's Henry now that LGNDW has tanked so bad? Rman

To: Vector1 who wrote (5560)	9/2/1998 1:45:00 PM
From: Berk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

Vector Somewhat OT. In error I posted the following (a little revised now) on the INCY thread: Currently we have a fairly wide disparity between the large caps and the smaller ones, the Russell 2000. As an example in the biotechs the AMGN's, BGEN's, etc have done well while the GZTC's, LGND's have collapsed. In the semiequip area AMAT is selling at a large premium to its group while BRKS is close to its "cash" value. Unfortunately, this theme seems to be spread across a large number of sectors, not just these two. (I seem to recall reading somewhere that the Russell 2000 has had close to a 50% correction.) In the past the market has resolved this is two ways: a bear market similar to the mid 70's where the Nifty 50 were picked off by a massive bear market or more recently in the 80's where the LBO became the vehicle through which this was done. Some say Bill Simon started it all when he took over Gibson Greetings and promptly resold it months later for a fantastic gain. Obviously, my preference is the latter rather than the former. The question is, "is the climate right for it." Were I a VC my trigger finger would be getting itchy and the more light I saw at the end of the tunnel in SEA and Russia the "itchier" it would get. I would appreciate your perspective on this since I think your main occupation would give you insight that I don't possess.