Abby was on NBR today. I was having my diner so I had to tun it off. -g- I will post here blab some time tomorrow. Here is an interesting interview on yesterday's NBR:
<<A Bear's Analysis Of The Wall Street Woes
PAUL KANGAS: With me now to analyze the woes of Wall Street is Stan Weinstein, editor and
publisher of "The Professional Tape Reader" market letter. Welcome back, Stan.
STAN WEINSTEIN, EDITOR, "THE PROFESSIONAL TAPE READER": Always my
pleasure, Paul.
KANGAS: During your market monitor interview with me just last month on July 10 when the
Dow stood at 9106, you said we were late in the ninth inning of the bull market, because you saw
all kinds of technical problems. The non- confirmations between the Industrial Average. The
Transport Index. S&P 500. A very poor advance/decline ratio. A very disappointing new yearly
highs and lows. Now we stand at 7539. And yet some analysts are calling this, a bull market
correction. Is that possible?
WEINSTEIN: I think that's ludicrous. As far as I'm concerned, all you have to know. They lost
$500 billion today. Two trillion since the top. The NASDAQ average OTC stock is down close
to 50 percent. The Russell2000 is down 31 percent. Even the Dow, which is way behind, is down
almost 20 percent. To me, if this is a bull market correction, I wouldn't want to see the bear mark
or the bear market.
KANGAS: The action today. Does this worry you? Or does this look like a sort of a final blast
on the down side?
WEINSTEIN: Short-term versus long-term. Short-term, panic. I think that within 24 to 48 hours,
putting in a short-term bottom. But, this is a bottom, the next when it comes. Not, the bottom. I
think from the next bottom fall, no way do you go to a new high. You don't even go back to a
recent high. This next rally up, who knows? Maybe it's 8000, 8200. It's a rally to be used for
additional selling, not for buying.
KANGAS: So you told us we were late in the ninth inning of the bull market. What inning are we
in, in the bear market at that rate?
WEINSTEIN: I would say third inning of the bear market. That's why I'm telling you. I don't want
to buy this next rally. I think people are underestimating it. We're still in the early stages of the
bear market. I think redemptions are going to first start coming in here. I think we're going to have
some problems.
KANGAS: But if we see massive percentage declines like we did today, how long can it last
before we get to zero?
WEINSTEIN: (LAUGHTER) Well, if it kept going down today, that would happen. But it's not
going to happen. Through every bear market I've ever been in. And this bear market reminds me
very much of all the way back in 1962, which crashed. There's always the next oversold rally.
KANGAS: You didn't use the word "crash," did you?
WEINSTEIN: I think what you saw today was a, a crash. I mean, my screen had nothing but red
on it. I think this is a definite crash.
KANGAS: So on the next rally, not only would you use it to sell long positions. But would you
initiate short positions?
WEINSTEIN: Absolutely.
KANGAS: Where.
WEINSTEIN: I don't want to give shorts out, you know, short sales on your show because this
market is moving too quickly. But, yes, for those that know how to do it, I would be selling short.
Especially in the more speculative stocks, which a lot of them are still up on top.
KANGAS: And not giving into the temptation of buying some of the Dells (NASDAQ:DELL),
you know, down 18 today. The Microsofts (NASDAQ:MSFT).
WEINSTEIN: Which certainly looks like a bargain. No, I think this is what people have to learn.
A lot of times, even though people are positioned right, and they miss the start of the bear market,
they get sucked in because they say, oh, that's cheap. And what I've learned is what's cheap, can
become cheaper.
KANGAS: When you saw this coming, based on technical problems with the market. But you
look at the fundamentals, too, don't you? What do you think the problem is there?
WEINSTEIN: Paul, if you take a look. The technicals, you know, are terrible. But in addition, the
political situation. The worst since Nixon, back in '74. Fundamentals, earnings are going to be
disappointing. Valuations, they were recently the highest in history. You put it together. To me,
this spells, bear.
KANGAS: Big bear.
WEINSTEIN: Big bear.
KANGAS: The other things is that, you're, I'm mean, you're trading on these rallies. But you have
to be awfully nimble for that.
WEINSTEIN: Right, and that's only for those people who really know how to do the trading. I
think for most of your viewers, the best thing you can do. They're supposedly in for the long-term.
Which, I think, after today, some people are going to start to think less long-term. I think that they
should look to sell rallies. Have a little bit less mutual funds. And even though two years from
today, we may be higher. I think in the next few months, we'll be lower.
KANGAS: Take the security of bonds? Is this a time to go into bonds?
WEINSTEIN: Bonds have been fine. Obviously a lot of people are doing that. That's why bonds
are strong. But I think profit taking is not a dirty word. They should do some selling.
KANGAS: So stay on the sidelines until this thing plays itself out.
WEINSTEIN: Still very cautious.
KANGAS: But we are in a bear market.
WEINSTEIN: Yes we are.
KANGAS: All right. Stan, thanks very much for being with us again.
WEINSTEIN: Always my pleasure Paul.
KANGAS: Been a pleasure. My guest, Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of "The Professional
Tape Reader" market letter.
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