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To: donald sew who wrote (51349)	9/1/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: Nancy	Respond to of 58727

we are in a bear market and we occasionally have those countertrend rallies which generally are very powerful but very short-lived. we had them on 08/17 & 18, and we had it today. yes, back in 97 the new low dramatically improved on the rebound day and days after, not this time. some cycle guys said the 9-month & 4 year cycle lows happen in 2nd - 3rd week of september which coincides with your projection. check out decisionpoint website for the updated dow chart - doesn't look good.

To: donald sew who wrote (51349)	9/1/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: Nancy	Respond to of 58727

Donald, just read this from Cramer - he doesn't think this is repeat of 10/28. Wrong! Dispatches from the Front: Big Rally, Sure, but Today's No Oct. 28 By James J. Cramer 9/1/98 4:57 PM ET Lots of talk that today was just like Oct. 28, 1997. You know, when the market rallied really big after the down-500 day before and we were off to the races. Wrong! In 1997 we were in nirvana land. We knew that East Asia was bad, but we thought that would hurt a couple of semiconductor equipment stocks and Japan. We figured we would actually be a beneficiary because interest rates would go lower. The Fed would not have to tighten. We could buy Procter & Gamble (PG:NYSE) and Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) and Merrill Lynch (MER:NYSE). A buying spree was justified. Now look at the world. It turns out that East Asia was so bad that even the Procters got hurt. It turns out that the brokerages were heavily leveraged to this stuff, including Russia, through the hedge fund community. Tech? Who knows who is safe? And we were too right about the bonds. The yield curve got inverted, wrecking the pricing power for savings and loans, once one of the market's most popular groups. In other words, we could load the boat up in 1997 and get giant gains. This time we could put on some good trades, but we have to go and soon, because who knows what the next quarter brings us. That's why I liken this rally to one of those head-fake 1990-type moves that will ultimately take us lower. How fast? There's some momentum. People like reversals. People like advance/decline line shifts. People like giant volume turnarounds on Tuesdays. There's plenty of cash on the sidelines and a ton of bears. Give it a week. Maybe.

To: donald sew who wrote (51349)	9/1/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: AlanH	Respond to of 58727

[Assuming that your post was tonuge-in-cheek] From my limited understanding, the benefit of New Hi/Lo is to provide a keyhole into activity that is beneath surface. Whether we call something 'bull,' 'bear' or 'crunchy Skippy Peanut-butter' is immaterial. The desire is to identify some undercurrent that is at odds with the apparent. During the momentous climb to 9300, I'd be concerned if new-lows increased significantly; during a downtrend, increasing new-highs would be suggestive. Implicitly, it's tough to make new highs during presumed downtrends; flip. That so few new-hi's have been measured is confirmation, just as 10/97 when greater new-hi's were non-confirmation. While I'm doing step-aerobics on a soap-box, discussion of SEPT puts is somewhat disconcerting. IMO, SEPT puts represent[ed] a nice play for conditions up to today. Downside magnitude looks promising, but amplitude is in question. I'd prefer to relinquish some leverage for time... say, OCT. (I can always create time spreads in the interim.) The 'quick fix' approach simply looks like an attempt to catch the wave. 'Course all the Sept stuff is play money... <g> All this aside, my gut says that we'll tank by mid-September. GT, Alan