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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph G. who wrote (4986)	9/1/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Here is a guy who agrees with your recession scenerio <g> >>Tom Kurlak The reigning Intel ax is beyond bearish. Even at these cheap levels, Merrill Lynch analyst and perennial Institutional Investor all-star Kurlak doesn't think that Intel -- or any of the other semiconductor stocks -- is attractive. "The whole semi group is still under a lot of pressure because its fundamentals are falling apart," says Kurlak, who points out that the sector peaked in the fall of 1997. (Merrill Lynch has not participated in any of Intel's recent offerings.) He believes that if investors had been watching the semiconductor industry, they would have seen this marketwide selloff coming. "Six of our last six recessions in this country have been preceded by a drop in the semis," says Kurlak. "It seems as if the semis are a very good barometer of when the market's changing." He notes that the last time the sector had this much pain was in 1990-91. For Kurlak, the sorry state of the semis is a sign that the entire tech industry is in need of an upgrade. "We need something new," he notes, to take the baton from the PC stocks that have been the "primary drivers" of this tech economy for the last decade. PC manufacturers such as Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HWP - news) and IBM (NYSE:IBM - news) have to start growing again so that they can order more chips from chipmakers, who are desperately waiting for a new engine for growth. "Chips are like bricks for housing," Kurlak explains. "And people have to come up with a new house that people want to buy."<<