Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Strategy for Achieving Wealth and Off Topic -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sonki who wrote (20845)	9/3/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: dougjn	Respond to of 27012

Well Sonki, I would sure be all ears. I mean eyes. <g> I'm very bearish too. All cash except for a few very short term trades. Usually day. I'm a real chicken little these days. I think there is a good chance of a real financial panic. A down Dow limit day (10%) wouldn't surprise me. Based on some sort of Japanese financial collapse. From there a rally based on overdone. No depression likely. Then a grinding down as we realize that most all multinationals are getting hit. Risk premium goes way up. Therefor PE's of everything goes down. And then the E's go down. People realize it is very hard to value stocks based on forward prices and five year growth rates, because no one has confidence in predictions. Bad for stock prices. Very. Clearly some of this has already happened. I think there's a lot more to come. Because PE's are still very high historically, and E's for 1999 haven't been taken down much. Put another way, so far we've only had PE's come down. Next E's will come down, as well as PE's some more. Then we'll at least fear that E's will stay down for longer than thought. (Lower growth rates.) Doug