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To: djane who wrote (53582)	9/2/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: djane	Respond to of 61433

thestreet.com reference. LU to buy COMS? [See middle section] thestreet.com Silicon Valley: 10 Things to Watch in Tech: Telecoms thestreet.com By Jeffrey Hoffman Staff Reporter 9/2/98 10:04 AM ET Until about a week ago, investors were looking to the telecommunications sector to provide a haven from the hurricane rippling through the world financial markets. But now that the big long-distance carriers and major equipment makers have also been pounded along with the rest of the market, investors have to question whether these so-called defensive plays really provide shelter. Giant equipment makers like Lucent (LU:NYSE), Nortel (NT:NYSE) and Motorola (MOT:NYSE) have thrived in the '90s in large part by hawking their wares to booming international emerging markets. With economic distress spreading from the Urals to the Andes, can the good times continue? In the U.S., the baby Bells (a.k.a. regional Bell operating companies, or RBOCs) face a growing competitive challenge from upstarts spawned by the 1996 Telecommunications Act, called competitive local exchange carriers, or CLECs. And will cellular phone penetration continue its heady growth or will U.S. consumers turn skittish? Below are some key events and issues that could affect telecom stocks in the coming months. Sept. 14-17: Montgomery Securities Conference NationsBanc Montgomery Securities holds its 28th annual conference in San Francisco. Investors will be looking for subtle clues from a whole host of telecom companies, including: RBOCs Bell Atlantic (BEL:NYSE), BellSouth (BLS:NYSE) and SBC Communications (SBC:NYSE); long-distance carriers WorldCom (WCOM:Nasdaq) and Qwest (QWST:Nasdaq); wireless service providers Western Wireless (WWCA:Nasdaq), Nextel (NXTL:Nasdaq) and AirTouch (ATI:NYSE); and CLEC WinStar Communications (WCII:Nasdaq), the subject of perennial takeover speculation. By the end of the show, it should be clear how these companies will fare in the coming months. Oct. 1: Lucent Unchained For the first time since gaining freedom from AT&T (T:NYSE), Lucent is eligible to structure acquisitions as stock-swap deals. "Everybody wants to know what Lucent will do when they don't have to pay cash," says Piper Jaffray analyst Sam May. Among possible targets for the AT&T spinoff: troubled data-communications equipment maker 3Com (COMS:Nasdaq). Much will depend on Lucent's third-quarter earnings -- expected in the last week of October -- which could take a hit from overseas economic slumps. Analysts surveyed by First Call expect Lucent to earn 39 cents per share, versus 29 cents per share last year. Oct. 5: Motorola Earnings The cellular equipment maker, which bet its fortunes on Asia and was particularly battered by the region's slump, is expected to eke out a profit of just 1 cent per share, according to analysts surveyed by First Call. That is quite a fall from earnings of 54 cents per share in the same period a year ago. Oct. 12-14: Wireless IT 98 Conference in Las Vegas More industry movers and shakers will convene to discuss the future of Internet and other data transmission over wireless systems. Attending companies include Lucent, Ericsson (ERICY:Nasdaq ADR) and Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq). Oct. 13: Telcos Take Their Case to the Supreme Court The Supreme Court is expected to hear a series of cases pitting the Federal Communications Commission against state regulators and the RBOCs. At stake is whether primary authority to regulate local pricing rests with the feds or the states. A win for the FCC could lead to major changes in the way the Bells charge competitive local services companies for access. This could speed up local competition. If the Bells win, expect the status quo. Oct. 27: Nortel Releases Earnings The bellwether Canadian-based equipment maker is projected to earn 38 cents per share in the quarter, versus 30 cents per share a year ago, according to the First Call consensus estimate. Good news for Nortel tends to be contagious. Late October: WorldCom Earnings After its spate of acquisitions, WorldCom has become a key stock to watch. The company is expected to report earnings of 24 cents per share, according to First Call's consensus estimate, versus 12 cents per share in the same period a year ago. Mark Herskovitz, manager of the Dreyfus Technology Growth fund, calls WorldCom the bellwether for the 21st century telecom company. "Their economics are where everybody wants to get to and they're probably two to three years ahead of the competition," he says. Market players expect the company to report better-than-expected quarterly profits. Oct. 30: Qwest's Earnings Qwest, which is fast becoming one of the major telecommunications players, is expected to show a loss of 5 cents a share versus a 7-cent-a-share profit in the same period last year. Qwest's planned domestic 18,449-mile network, which will serve more than 130 cities, is expected to be completed by the second quarter of 1999. Nov. 8-11: American Electronics Association Classic Financial Conference for Public Companies, San Diego Piper's May says this meeting is "an excellent place to get a good sniff" of up-and-coming mid- and small-cap telecom companies. Those presenting include wireless equipment maker Allen Telecom (ALN:NYSE) and Advanced Fibre Communications (AFCI:Nasdaq), a maker of digital loop equipment, as well as Premisys Communications (PRMS:Nasdaq). Sometime in the fourth quarter: FCC Ruling on Local Data Networks In Washington, the glacial pace of regulatory reform -- in part due to fierce lobbying battles between long-distance and local phone companies -- has hampered implementation of the 1996 Telecommunications Act and the transformation of the U.S. telecom business into a truly competitive market. But at least one significant reform measure is likely to be set this year: a provision that would allow the Bells to set up subsidiaries for their data networks. The FCC proposed in August that the RBOCs would not have to sell access to those networks to competitors, giving the Bells an incentive to invest in high-speed networks. According to Brett Izuma, chief telecom analyst for the San Jose, Calif.-based market research firm Dataquest, the FCC will issue at least a partial blueprint of the rules by the end of the year, and regional phone companies will begin to reveal plans for their data businesses. c 1998 TheStreet.com, All Rights Reserved.

To: djane who wrote (53582)	9/2/1998 11:46:00 AM
From: djane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Dell'Oro Group 2Q98 Router & Remote Access Report; Multi-Service Voice and Data Propel Router Market Sales 09:08 a.m. Sep 01, 1998 Eastern PORTOLA VALLEY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--September 1, 1998--Router sales grew $96 million Q/Q to $1.38 billion in 2Q98, and Remote Access sales grew $39 million Q/Q to $574 million in 2Q98 -- 7 percent growth Q/Q for both markets, according to the Dell'Oro Group's 2Q98 report released last week. The strongest growth came from sales of Multi-Service Voice and Data Routers which grew 39 percent Q/Q. "Growth in Multi-Service Voice and Data Routers is indicative of the enterprise market looking to converge its voice and data networks," said Tam Dell'Oro, Founder of the Dell'Oro Group. Router and Remote Access Market Leaders Manufacturers Revenue and Market Share Routers 1Q98 2Q98 2Q98 MFG REVENUE ($M) $1,280 $1,375 Share Cisco $820 $895 65% Bay Networks $126 $149 11% 3Com $36 $50 4% Motorola $34 $34 2% IBM $34 $33 2% AVM $25 $24 2% Micom / Nortel $24 $21 2% Ascend $25 $18 1% Cabletron $10 $13 1% Act Networks $12 $12 1% Remote Access 1Q98 2Q98 2Q98 MFG REVENUE ($M) $535 $574 Share 3Com $139 $158 28% Cisco $128 $143 25% Ascend $135 $138 24% Bay Networks $22 $29 5% Shiva $24 $24 4% Lucent $21 $21 4% ACC $9 $7 1% Cabletron $5 $7 1% Microm / Compaq $7 $7 1% AVM $1 $1 0% The Dell'Oro Group's Routers and Remote Access report provides in-depth data and analysis of the Router and Remote Access markets. Available to clients this week on www.delloro.com, the report contains tables of data on the performance of over 30 manufacturers. The Dell'Oro Group is a research and consulting firm that specializes in business planning and strategic competitive analysis in the networking industry. Copyright 1998, Business Wire o~~~ O