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To: Berney who wrote (3762)	9/2/1998 5:09:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Respond to of 11051

Berney; RE:" Toujours l'Argent " >FRBFX, my key to the financial sector, is down 13.9% as of 8/31 The BKX.X had a YTD base support at ~690, and it closed yesterday at ~663.5 -- so it is down -4% for the year; it hit ~930 highs just six weeks ago, and was up +35%, almost 2x the S&P. >I find my trend lines and supports are useless... I began accumulating when the index was at ~800, (about where the 200d EMA is on my chart) which was an UpTrend Line that had been intact since APR-97, and represented a 14% decline from the highs. I stuck to the programme and pyramid-bought-down four times, the last at ~630 (yesterday), or -32% from the top - one heluva correction. The current level today on this index corresponds to an UpTrend Line that began in 1995. FWIW, the next lower magic line on my BKX.X chart is at ~550 : a -41% correction from the high (just six weeks ago) at ~930. >I just don't see the market recovering without the financial sector... And on that point, we completely agree, Berney. If this finesse doesn't work, the hand the market was dealt cannot make game. BKX.X falling to ~550 would probably push the OEX down to around ~430; hard to tell, really. Even my charts get fuzzy around that area (^_^) so quick has been the stock market crash. >interesting what happens as we start getting the earnings warnings... The news-wires have already begun to reveal the extent of some losses due to currency exposure, and other losses due to trading activities. biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com Of course, by the time this "news" was posted, the sector has corrected ~30% from its highs. Some 'analyst downgrades' have already started to come out, with cuts in earnings expectations. In the very short-term, the BKX.X made a bullish-reversal "hammer" candlestick yesterday on climactic volume. 'Course, the caveat of candlestick reversals is that they require confirmation {grin} I'd like to see the BKX.X struggle back to the ~710 area before making its (inevitable) re-test of supports at ~640... but the BKX.X has not been able to muster any rally over +3% since it began to crash in July. -Steve