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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Philipp who wrote (26161)	9/2/1998 5:57:00 AM
From: N	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

True...not much news ft 9/2/98 D for dominoes The slide in global markets may have come to a temporary halt. But they are still haunted by three "Ds" - default, dominoes and deflation. Yesterday Malaysia ratcheted these fears up a notch by imposing exchange controls. In itself, the Malaysian economy (like Russia's) is too tiny to have much direct impact on Europe or the US. The concern, rather, is that it could trigger copycat action in other emerging markets - particularly with respected academics like MIT's Professor Paul Krugman advocating capital controls. Malaysia is, in effect, telling shareholders their money is trapped for a year. That is not quite as bad as Russia's defaulting on its debts, but it comes a close second. Investors, such as hedge funds, needing to sell Malaysian stocks to meet margin calls will be unable to do so. Moreover, now that even Hong Kong is fiddling with the operation of free markets, policy measures that only a few weeks ago would have been unthinkable cannot be completely discounted. The probable effect will be to accelerate the capital flight from emerging markets. ---- OK, Krugamn...i could even wind my way through the negative real interest rate argument for Japan, but capital controls ?, yuk ----- ...the next round of potential regional problems ft 9/2/98 Brazil's deficit The Brazilian government has published federal budget proposals for 1999 implying economic growth during the year of 3.9 per cent. The estimate is much higher than those of most independent economists, and was understood to be an attempt to signal the government's commitment to bringing public spending under control. But economists doubted the government's ability to meet its target. "It's a very optimistic projection of growth," said Mauro Schneider, of ING Barings. "Slower growth will inevitably lead to lower tax receipts. Once again the budget proposal looks more like a piece of fiction than reality."... ...planning minister vows to protect currency...contrary to stated policy end report Nancy

To: Philipp who wrote (26161)	9/2/1998 7:34:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Philipp, Globex is slightly negative right now... The Fib numbers - 1,2,3,5,8,13 etc represent cycle days... if you look at past, you will see them time after time in the up and down moves of the market. And the cycles have been tending toward 5 recently. So while this doesn't always work, you COULD expect the next "low" next Tuesday. Now Globex is up. (I have a utility which monitors Globex and tells me when prices change even when I am in another window working.) So it is a crap shoot for the open at this time. Bill