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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (26195)	9/2/1998 9:29:00 AM
From: set	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

re: guesses short covering rally in HK ends in sudden death

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (26195)	9/2/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

My guess for the BK trigger: The result of the Japanese banking situation: If they bail out the banks then they will dump US bonds big time to do it resulting in a currency crash for the dollar which will cause foreign investors to pull out of our stock markets. If they don't then the resulting banking collapse will cause a worldwide liquidity crunch. No money to buy stocks with anywhere. either way .. no exit. Gersh

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (26195)	9/3/1998 4:54:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Barbara: I am starting to think that the language I and others on this thread have been using is the wrong one. We are no longer waiting for the BK, we are in the middle of it! It is just different from what I (many others?) expected. Probably many people think of the 87 drop as the prototype crash (well-studied, many people here experienced it life, the pattern has been repeated several times since on a smaller scale). If you look at the chart, the phase since last week sure looks like a crash and we are still in the phase where momentum appears to be picking up (sentiment is certainly still falling rapidly). The first leg of 29 looks quite similar. I would tentatively expect the next sharp move down to be the climax of the first leg down, probably ending with a severe bout of panic selling. In Europe the present correction is already being called a crash, but the mainstream media emphasize that it is not over yet. The present nervousness can easily give way to panic (and yesterday certainly was not a good day for market sentiment). One other consideration: if you look at the sharp drop of the Dollar against the Yen and in particular the DM, that must imply that foreigners are rapidly repatriating money from the U.S. (the dollar should be sharply up relative to the DM because of the Russian crisis). Since foreigners have been essential in keeping up/propelling the last phase of the bubble, that is another bad sign. I am still sticking with my target 750 SPX for the first leg down. Apropos Ms Cohen: Do you think that there will be an investigation into these obvious manipulation attempts (using doctored numbers to claim that the market is undervalued)? Many people who believe her will be severely hurt. I can see a criminal case against her, if it can be shown that her bullishness was fake and only intended to keep Goldman's IPO on track (for what date was it scheduled by the way?). Good trading to all. Well, it is really better to say good luck to all. Phil