To: Kirk © who wrote (2054 ) 9/2/1998 4:34:00 PM From: Duker Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5867
Kirk et. al., Alright. I go on a trip for a few days and look at what you've done. LRCX @ $11 and change? All of you who are buyers at these levels, I commend you. Those of you thinking about it, do some work on this one and get comfortable! As the institutional lemmings continue to throttle the stock -- I know, I recently left one of the(10% owners) that has been selling consistently in the name of becoming "more defensive" & "less risky." Here is a sample of the twaddle with which I dealt in my former life: "Lam is just too volatile, [Duker]. It is just too risky. I think we are better served moving into the more stable/defensive names."[...even though they do not fit our value discipline...and the multiples are inflated...and we do not know the management...and...] "Why do the numbers keep coming down? I just do not see how the cycle turns around [though this person has no idea exactly what LRCX, AMAT, NVLS, etc. actually do for a living]." "I just can not get comfortable with the numbers. There is no visibility." "I agree that the upside is tremendous and the downside is relatively low, but it seems too risky.[?]" "The analyst from [you fill in the name] just wrote a report on industry overcapacity and how utilization rates will not tick up until [2021] at the earliest...He makes some good points...I just do not think the turn will come anytime soon." [This after thorough analysis of 400 words fo poorly written text by some Research Assistant at such and such firm.] These prices are just too attractive to pass up. It seems almost too good to be true. But, frankly, I have done a slug of work on this one and could not be more comfortable. This is truly an opportunity to buy a very good business on sale. This one will taste especially sweet. --Duker