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To: dougjn who wrote (14471)	9/2/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

dougjn: The biggest mistakes of my career derive from trying to predict the future be it inflation, deflation, interest rates, economic boom or bust. The Asian crisis is an event. There will be repurcussions and ripple effects, some analyzable, some completely unpredictible. Whatever happens, it would not look "exactly" like the 1930s or the 1970s or some other historical period. The causation is different; the players are different and the world is different. So...why am I know optimistic? The Russell 2000...which is an index of small capitalization stocks...is down almost 30% since April. Many, many good companies have suffered price declines of fifty percent or more. Some of these stock prices not only discount the Asian contagion, they discount the coming of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. I am a professional business analyst..not an economist..I live in a world defined by free cash flow, corporate balance sheets and long-duration business assets. The values that I see make me very optimistic that the patient investor will be well rewarded. It's just as easy to panic when others are panicking as it is to buy Yahoo when it was going up every day. Either decision is wrong. Calm, cool, calculated pragmatism will make you money through good times and bad. The Asian train has already run the NASDAQ off the track...it is not useful to "predict" a train wreck that has already occurred. There are LOTS and LOTS of incredible values in the market right now; just like after the 1987 crash. It's time to get busy. Best regards, Gregg

To: dougjn who wrote (14471)	9/2/1998 3:57:00 PM
From: Don S.Boller	Respond to of 152472

dougin: "THOUGHTS...APPRECIATED"...................Agree with your basic scenarios...my differences are more in degree. Let me observe that: (1) as measured by the advance/decline line - THIS HAS BEEN A BEAR since it topped out on April 3rd.......... (2) then on July 29th, the Transports broke below their June low; (3) following that, on August 4th - the Industrials broke the June low, triggering a DOW THEORY BEAR MARKET.......... (What is most interesting: between July 9th and Aug. 11th - the A/D ratio was DOWN on 19 of 24 trading sessions or 79% of the time......(that, IMHO wasn't just the widows and orphans heading for the life-boats.) In any bear market - there will be sudden and sharp reversals,,,,, but these won't alter the trend in place - until the WORST that can be seen ahead has been fully DISCOUNTED........................ BWDIK Best, Don