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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: uu who wrote (2057)9/2/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: oexplayer  Respond to of 5867
 
Addi:

Your points about Lam's intrinsic value are well taken! As difficult as it is to bottom fish I think Lam is a tremendous opportunity. The stock is so washed out it is difficult to fathom it falling much further near term.

Although all the financial ratios are screaming buy, the next few quarters will be rough. However, my view is that all the bad news is in the price and once we escape year end tax selling, the price will begin to move up. No doubt it's dead money for a while but it will be scary to see this thing move when EPS accelerates. Best to buy when nobody wants to. IMHO that time is here!

Good Luck,

Kevin



To: uu who wrote (2057)9/2/1998 7:36:00 PM
From: Gary Burton  Respond to of 5867
 
Better values around --try ASYT also a semiequip.



To: uu who wrote (2057)9/4/1998 11:27:00 PM
From: john dodson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5867
 
Here are some thoughts Re: lam's great valuation:

> 1. According to yahoo the current book value is at $15/shr, and yet > the stock is selling at $11/shr (i.e. about 25% below book value).

Of course you realize that Lam is currently losing $. As long as they continue to do that, book value shrinks with it. Book value of $15 today could be book value of $10 this time next year (totally hypothetically).

>2. The stock is selling at half its revenue (i.e. P/S is at around $0.4).

This is a very compelling 'positive' for Lam. Lsi is beaten up pretty bad, but even it is still selling better than 1.x times sales, a firesale in any other market. Again, though, to play devil's advocate, if sales decline, this ratio may stay low with it.

>3. The company is in a cyclical industry that when (and not if) things turn up has a huge upside potential (unless I am missing something).

This is clearly true, and readily acknowledged by those who follow this industry. Big problem here is that who knows when we'll turn +. In the meantime, the semi's and equips continue to slide into the inner bowls of hates.

Having said all of this, my take is that LRCX is a screaming buy at these levels. If it gets anywhere near the $5.00 share earnings of the past peak, this is a $75 stock somewhere in the upper crest of the next upswing, assuming it stays independent. Course that's a ways off, but the for a potential 500% return, it's worth the wait, if you can stomach it!

JMHO,

John Dodson