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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob glass who wrote (8109)	9/2/1998 6:20:00 PM
From: Jason Cogan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

bob: I don't claim to have a crystal ball. I'm just an old fashioned investor, who prefers to look at balance sheets and cash flows rather than analyst recommendation. Winstar may see a technical bounce, but I don't think a prolonged recovery is in the cards. Stocks like Winstar are bull market stocks, where investors are willing to look past current financials towards "hoped for" future earnings. In this respect, I see Winstar and the other CLECs as similar plays to the internet sector. I don't see this type of sustained optimism returning to the market anytime soon. Just my 2 cents. Regards, JC

To: bob glass who wrote (8109)	9/2/1998 6:40:00 PM
From: Steven Bowen	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 12468

"so I am confident in a rapid recovery, and then some." Wish I could be as bullish as some here, but I have concerns for the market, which as we've seen, can crush WinStar. I'm sure you all hearing the terms "suckers rally" and "bear trap" being tossed about. Why is everybody so sure this isn't what we're seeing? I've bought about five bottoms now since about 40 and have gotten crushed, so a little nervous to buy here (maybe that in and of itself is good reason to suspect this is the bottom). Does anybody think the market and/or WinStar has to go back and at least test their recent lows??? Does anybody think the recent lows won't hold and we could correct further, ie maybe another 1000 down on the Dow and below 15 for WinStar??? Given how historically weak Sept and Oct are, and the severe tax loss selling we could see this year, does anyone see much hope for the rest of the year??? Could a nasty retest of these past lows during Oct really spook the market and lead to a substantial sell off??? I've pretty much come to the conclusion that we can be of much more use to each other if we approach this realistically rather than the cheerleader approach we've always taken. I've talked to a lot of people here, and every single one says we SHOULD have seen this coming. We SHOULD have known to take some profits around 40. We SHOULD have known we were breaking down through the 30's and bought puts. We SHOULD have known somewhere around 30 or 33 or 36 that we would have been much better off being short rather than long. Not saying that there was anything wrong wiith WinStar, but that we SHOULD have known what the market could do to WinStar. Silicon Warrior peg this sell off a long time ago. He just didn't have the conviction, and we didn't offer the support, to act on it. Didn't we all feel the rotation out of this sector? Wasn't it obvious to everybody (in your brain, not your heart), that we were putting way too much hope into a buyout which had at best probably 5% chance of coming about? Looking back, isn't it obvious to everyone that we SHOULD have been out by probably 36 at the latest??? How many support levels do you watch fall before you figure out we're in a down trend? So now, realistically, looking forward, all cheerleading aside, what SHOULD we most probably expect for the near term future??? Anybody have any thoughts on the above questions? I have to play this rationally for awhile. Can't afford to get caught in a bear trap. Get burned any more and I might have to find a real job (well, not quite that bad :-)) But also equally on the other hand, I can't afford to miss a quick run back to 40. So what's the consensus?