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To: Wolf 2 who wrote (14723)	9/3/1998 3:24:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

<ggg> That's hilarious... I think we will soon be having some big problems of our own. Have you seen the CRB index recently. Now at a 21 year low and sinking still. I was talking to an old-timer here and we were comparing prices of things xxx years ago vs. today (hint to anyone - monopolies are good - cigarettes are up 100 fold gas is up 10 fold over the last generation or so). What this is indicating is zippo demand of commodities and that gels with the fact that the economies of the world are crumbling. One could argue that the risk free interest rate (short term interest rate like T bills) is VASTLY OVERVALUED here in the States. Right now I think we are close to an inverted curve and that of course means recession. Duh! like us stock investors did not realize that already. So my guess is that the short term rate will (has to) plunge before life gets good again. Maybe a rate drop of at least 200 bp. Heck LSI could then raise money in the States instead of going to Japan (not that that alternative is not fraught with risk - currency issues etc). So what we could thereby see the long bond at 4.50% soon. Man who would have thunked it! That should temporarily push some money into stocks. Maybe... Balance it with the fact that soon we have the year 2000 thing coming and that will divert much needed cash for R&D into that small black hole.... Mmmm... tech stocks without r&d... pain... Looking at the Dow I think we could easily go to 7200 and I would hope we would go down to 6000... I would then be bankrupt since the idiots are pulling money out of the small caps faster than you can say Clinton is a Saint. But it is necessary to get the speculation out and over with. And get these little people really really scared before we can have any hope of a sustained recovery... Need those forest fires before the forest gets reborn... Not selling regardless but we live in interesting times as they would say.... Shane.