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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: matt fahy who wrote (21183)	9/2/1998 9:35:00 PM
From: joe	Respond to of 45548

Matt, I think we have some more high volatility days ahead of us this week and maybe next. That means some DOW -300 days. If this is the case, I'm not looking for upward retracement. I expect to fall with the indexes. The good thing is that there seems to be a bottom at 24...unless the DOW drops another 1,000 pts. I don't think it will, but I don't rule it out either. Under normal markets, yes, we will be going up soon, I'd say after labor day when funds start putting their money to work. joe

To: matt fahy who wrote (21183)	9/3/1998 8:58:00 AM
From: Shroder Wertheim (Hijacked)	Respond to of 45548

Can not give you the financial outlook. But can provide you the product outlook. Contrary to Cisco marketing machine, most of COMS revenues are from products that do not compete with Cisco: NIC, Modem and Palm. Products that compete with Cisco could fare pretty well if engineers can deliver on time on budget. Office Connect, SuperStack, CoreBuilder, AccessBuilder and Access Control. NIC - tight cost control, quicker product deliver (where is the Gig?), strong server showing are the key. Modem - better time ahead. Palm - shining star. Nearly 100% year to year growth rate with great margin. Office Connect and SuperStack can hold into the number 1 position for small to medium business. CoreBuilder - has the greatest potential to kick the fat networking gear from Cisco. But where is CB 9000? Layer 3 IP/RIP/OSPF/BGP4 on CB 9000 alone could take $500M from FAT Cisco 12000, 7513 and 5500. CB 3500 can do well, but needs to come up with higher performance, higher density version within the next 6 to 9 months. Extreme, Foundry or P. E. should be on the shopping list, but it will not be cheap. AccessBuilder/Access Control - aggressive marketing is the key. Needs to improve direct sales. Cisco is so good at account control, it manages the street expectation well and it delivers. Even with Cisco slower growth in the last two quarter (EPS was 48c, 45c, not much sequential growth), Cisco is so richly valued, at 10 times the sales, 50 times the expected trailing next 4-quarter earning. Cisco could fall, its products are proprietary (e.g. its carrier switch by default will not use standard protocol, will not interoperate with any other vendors, its half million dollars GSR has no Ethernet link), slow and expensive. But it does have 5000 direct sales force, it uses high stock price as a weapon to acquire more companies and it manages the publications well.