Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (26299)	9/2/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: scotty	Respond to of 94695

I hope LTCB isn't writing your puts...Check "other risks" at CBOE home page...You will probably collect if the decline is orderly, but all bets are off in a crash.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (26299)	9/2/1998 10:33:00 PM
From: jef saunders	Respond to of 94695

hi David. wow ! thanks for detailed wave explanation. still just slightly confused, but now i have the overall picture. 1 of 3 of 1 of A is a completed down wave. 2 of 3 of 1 of A is an up move. within wave 2 up, wave 1 should be up wave 2 should be down wave 3 should be up ok, but now you mention a and c of 2 of 2 of 3 of 1 of A being UP waves...shouldn't a and c be DOWN waves ? i've always thought the a of 2 should go the same way as the 2. so you are buying september puts in order to maximize your money ? so far, i've been too chicken...leave room for error. i have november 520 oex, and october 8000 djx puts. with my incoming money on friday, perhaps i'll buy september puts.

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (26299)	9/3/1998 12:31:00 AM
From: Death Sphincter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David.....seems as though you have a moderately bearish count going on here. one which is predicated on the correction last Aug-Oct. as being Cycle wave IV and the move up to July 20th as Cycle 5......could be............ on the other hand: consider the following.......I believe you have Cycle I running from 1982 to 1994....and the correction of 1994 as Cycle II.........I have a problem with this count....by Elliott Theory... Cycle corrections are suppose to correct the previous Cycle just completed and the Cycle Correction is suppose to be BIGGER than any of the Primary corrections in the Cycle of lesser degree...in this case the correction of 1994 was correcting everything from 1982-1994....during this period Primary 2 correction was the 1987 crash, and Primary 4 correction was the 1990 correction of 16-22%(depending where you start it)..........the correction of 1994 was about 11%,not even close to P2 and P4...............and although they don't have to be "sharp" most 2nd waves are sharp, this was flat.....and, though not a law, it is a general "rule of thumb"that Cycle corrections should reach the level of the previous Primary 4 correction or exceed it (as the crash of 87 did), the 94 correction did not come close to reaching the level of P4, 1990(which began between 2800-3000) considering all of the above I cannot honor that count and the count forward would be skewed. it is possible that Cycle I ran from 1982 to 1987 Cycle II was the crash of 87 Cycle III ran from the crash to April 1998 with last fall being Primary 4 of Cycle III Cycle IV then running "A" April-May...."B" May-July 20......"C" 5 waves down and these 5 waves are getting us into Wave 4 of one lesser degree(P4 of Cycle III, last fall's correction) or if Cycle III ended July 20th we would just be in the "A" down of the big Cycle IV correction with "B" up to come (started Tuesday?) and then "C" down in a little while to test and/or exceed Mondays lows, which would be an alternation of Cycle II (87 crash) any one reading wave discussion should never forget that there is always more than 1 valid count.......I look for turning points with good probability and place a few bets...if the count goes my way I pour it on....if it goes to an alternate count against me I get stopped out or eat it...... if it drops 500 points tomorrow feel free to tell me to call my proctologist to help me find my head my best regards to you David and good luck to all carl

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (26299)	9/3/1998 12:38:00 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David I've been accumulating a stock called COHU.It is a "bank" and is below its severe shakeout of july 1996 . This week = 14 1/4 - 1996 = 14 3/4 . In my "tech stock dog world" we're already there ! BWDIK Bob P.S does your scenario envision A rotational leadership of depressed industries that have undergone accumulation.Or is it dismal everywhere all the way down? Bob O

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (26299)	9/3/1998 7:49:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Great post, David. Voting it for post of the month. I have the same count from the top. Only very minor interpretation disagreements in my read: 1. I support the intraday read that the small c was completed yesterday as my chief scenario, with the secondary scenario that we only completed a. To my aid I bring the speed this crash is going at, much faster from the top then '29 or Hang Seng '97. Then you have the 1 of 3 of A lasting just over 4 days, and a 1 1/2 days 2 of 3 of A looks just about right in comparison. Also the divergence from the intra day moving averages at the end of the day (and probably today's open) were too big to be only a small b. And finally look at the wavelets of yesterday's trade from the midday top- fast.quote.com Clear 5 count with the 5/3 ratio like the 3/1 ratio and the 5 of 5 missing (gap down today of about 7 OEX points). 2. It could very well be that we have completed a 220 years cycle (from the south sea bubble and independence of the US), and what you refer to as the A could be only 1 of A! Now whose the greater bear? >>Glad to say I fired the canon today on puts, not at the peak, but close enough. Me, too. Started collecting the OEX Sep 480s the day before, after I sold them ATO @18 (they reached 24 an hour later) averaging 10.3, and opened the sack today averaging 8.2. Will probably sell some today ATO to be on the safe side (I'm so heavily loaded with puts it scares me), and use same $ amount to buy deeper OOM around 11:00 am (NY time). Good luck and god help us all. ATG