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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Cyrus who wrote (19853)9/3/1998 4:10:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 50167
 
I was looking at various posts on my thread- the globex is down, DAX is down but my global indicators are giving me a no panic indicator, my feeling is that Globex is a highly manipulated market, also please look into this case I make every day about pit rumors-- now look back in this yesterday I wrote go long 990 and short 1017 we came back from 1015 high-- for me the trade was to buy puts and calls and thats what I did, nearly 10 my time we were finished with the positions, we closed out our long calls as well as long puts, just never occured to me that I should run it to the end-- for me as pits fully agree we want to see a base building possibly here or at higher level corresponding to 8600, now lot of read is made out of yesterday close but imagine it was planned that manner even when market opened they wanted it this way--I am not a magician to be able to nail the market every day within ranges, even major falls can be discovered as pits tend to go long at a certain point and withdraw at a certain break of support or resistance. I am questioning if this is the move close of yesterday I mean, a technical move how come pits told me that this is the probable action and that is what they plan to do. Forget about my morning post a day earlier I pinned down these levels at my late night post. The issue here is that we need on daily basis to develop a strategy of converting some of these tips into $ accounts, the intellectual pursuit of where is the bottom can be in parallel pursued with equal intensity. To finish things off why not to buy 5 time the size of your exposure puts at 900-- and try to make some money out of this range movement, why not to go ahead and place some money on the long puts if things look so bad, I would anyway do it below 955 but if one wants peave of mind not a dear price to pay.


The problems with the short argument about threat of mass withdrawl from stock market is that we have seen market secondary stocks reeling, even in best of times when DOW and NASDAQ was making new highs a common joe blogg, a common investors statements were not reflective of great returns market was showing, under Vinik Fidelity was not even into the market winners but we never saw a mass withdrawl of investors from the stock market. People are in for long run in this market, the fiscal complications of a withdrawl from a 401 and other accounts are not very good, once you are cash very difficult to bite the bullet. Renetry becomes a problem. I think that corporate earnings has been a problem since 750 on S&P, where one of my friend shorted S&P big time only to cover at 890 level, it was April, same thing hapened in Oct we were at 6900 and 845 on S&P people were expressing doubts as to the corporate ability of US to deliver, delivered they did. WE saw 1200 from lows of 845. Now similar case is being made but can you realise your buying these stocks at levels as if these three quarters never existed, like GE is on levels it was in Nov, why all this gloom is not showing in the economic numbers, why the sale of cars are still robust. We have seen a 12% plus rally in last few days in Malyasia, even Japan is holding very well Russian situation far for being cleared is showing a come back. he end of the world is nowehre to be seen. I am looking closely at previous quarter profits- they were up 7% without computers and peripherals, the big losses included CPQ writing off DEC acqusitions, MOT writing off its spin off bussiness and TXN alongwith GM strike, I just don't see even if we have a drop of expectations from 49$ on S&P to 44$, still 21-22 times average earning going forward gives you 950 level. The economies we are fretting about are not even fully priced in the market, because it is not based on these economies that stock prices are here, the potential is not even fully priced. Oil stocks like SLB are down, now it is one of the most efficient companies but it is reeling due to oil prices but these very prices in Dec will be couple minimum higher, Russian and the entire Oil sector will benefit from it, Dec can be a cruel month both ways. Some exploration companies I had a dinner with them last night are sititng on year lows with new FPOS's which will drill in deep sea off Angols 1500 m at 5$ a barrel, the stock is not even priced for 10% of reserves, they have programme that will continue until next 10 years.

In my opinion stock market with a bear configuration will only appear if we have major trouble with domestic economy, that is industrial productiom may be droppping, other sign can be unemployment rising above 5.5% we are at 4.5% , disposable incomes disappearing, 41% US citizens are in the stock market one way or the other RUT XAU Transportation Commodities and most of the others already contain the stories of living dead but they still maintain their presence and have not goen out in drooves, I think we cannot
got to be objective and look at these levels objectively. We are testing these lows but on the other hand all my major returns have come from trading these lows, if a slide really worries you buy 900 Dec contract puts 5 times your portfolio and start trading day to day normally, once the downside is hedged what is one worried about.Thanks