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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (51427)	9/3/1998 5:51:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

L3_aka_L3; RE:" Far Target ~440 ? " >Wouldn't the triple bottom at 440 from Aug 97 to Jan 98 take precendence on the fall? The triple top stopped the last decline as we bounced off of it at 470... ...good observation. The drop from OEX ~540 strike to ~470 has been essentially vertical, and there is no DownTrend "channel" yet. *Near Target ?* One T/Analyst proposed to me that the OEX was in a Head & Shoulders state 27-AUG, with a neckline 520 minus a head 580 giving a downside target of -60 OEX points from the neckline, equivalent to the ~460 level. The nearest fibonacci lines on my chart are around OEX 471-474. The horizontal support lines on my chart (AUG/OCT/DEC-97) are 470 +/-5. An UpTrend Line drawn from JUL-96+APR-97 gives us the value of ~463 this week. FWIW, I summarized all these magic lines ;-) as *near target = OEX 470 +/-5* *Far Target ?* I've got a minor fibonacci line floating in space at ~453; but a really major one at ~440. I've got a short-term fibonacci "estimated base" at ~426, another at ~422, and a medium-term "estimated base" at ~436. The longest-term UpTrend that I can draw on my chart gives us the value of ~430 (given a near-vertical drop). The horizontal supports from the consolidation during JUN-97 to JAN-98 give various values (from those lows) between 430 to 440. FWIW, because of the difficulty of estimating "farther" targets on a chart that is depicting a stock market crash scenario - rather than a DownTrend "channel" - I summarized all these magic lines as *far target = OEX 430 +/-10* -Steve