To: Ramsey Su who wrote (14494 ) 9/3/1998 9:05:00 AM From: Gregg Powers Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
Ramsey: I am sure that you recall some of my earlier posts, so you know that I was very much concerned about the prospects for a North American market break. My rationale was predicated on gross and arrogant retail speculation, the obvious aura of euphoria, gross overvaluation and the simple prospect that earnings expectations could not be satisfied given international economic dislocations. Where you and I now differ is that you seem to be more bearish now that the market has tumbled. Despite your colorful metaphor, stocks are not knives, but tangible ownership interests in businesses that have analyzable fundamentals and quantifiable economic value. Within this context, there has been wholesale carnage in the secondary stocks, with many issues down by fifty percent or more. BUT, the U.S. does not have anything approaching the weakness or instabilities that we are witnessing in the developing world. Our banking system is in terrific shape, our budget deficit is nearly extinguished (depending how you keep score) and the Federal Reserve has several unused bullets that have been untouched to date. Collectively this implies that there are profound opportunities in the secondary stocks. Nobody rang a bell to tell us that the market was topping, just like nobody will ring a bell to tell us that the market decline is over. I certainly wouldn't advocate getting 100% invested at this juncture. But there are some extraordinary values available right now and clear-headed people will buy businesses not "the market". As I said before, the time to predict the train wreck is before, not after, the accident. Best regards, Gregg