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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TI2, TechInvestorToo who wrote (19279)	9/3/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: Czechsinthemail	Respond to of 25960

Does anyone have the breakdown on product mix (i line vs DUV) year to year for this 420 vs 300 Nikon steppers? Although the total makes for big headlines, we are more interested in DUV unit shipments year to year. I would not be surprised to see the total go down year to year but DUV component to be much better trend. Remember that the fab capacity increase has not come from 300mm wafers but die shrinks by fab upgrades of some additional DUVsteppers in a mix and match mode. CYMI seems relatively strong today, perhaps related to the ETEC announcement and thoughts that DUV growth may be higher than expected. Baird

To: TI2, TechInvestorToo who wrote (19279)	9/3/1998 11:32:00 AM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

TI2, When Nikon announced results for last year the breakdown for DUV to i-line was 130 DUV tools to 290 i-line. Also, unit expectations going into this fiscal year were for 340 units, but no estimates of the DUV/i-line ratio. From May 18, 1998 TOKYO -- Nikon Corp. (J.NIK or 7731) Monday reported that parent pretax profit plunged 49% in the last fiscal year, and forecast that the current year would also be difficult because of continuing weak demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment it produces. Analysts said that the company's earnings may recover in the next fiscal year if overall conditions in the semiconductor industry improve, but warned that near-term problems could drive investors away from the company's shares. "The outlook for profits is deterioration, not improvement. The momementum is going the wrong way for anyone who wants to buy this stock," said Scott Foster, a senior analyst at ING Baring Securities who has a "sell" rating on the shares. Nikon said parent pretax profit amounted to Y8.36 billion in the fiscal year ended March 31, compared with Y16.48 billion the prior year. Operating profit slid 58% to Y8.98 billion and net income was 68% lower at Y3.03 billion. Sales fell 0.6% to Y293.93 billion. The company said the main reason for the profit decline was weaker-than-expected sales of steppers, which are devices used in the manufacturing of semiconductors. "We projected originally 500 steppers for the last fiscal year, but the result was 420," said Mamoru Kajiwara, a spokesman for the company. He also noted that the profitability of newer model excimer laser steppers is lower than for older type i-line steppers. Kajiwara said that the company shipped 290 i-line steppers in the last fiscal year and 130 excimer steppers. In the fiscal year ended in March 1997, the company shipped 535 i-line steppers and 30 excimer steppers. While the semiconductor manufacturing-related equipment business performed poorly in the last fiscal year, with sales declining 7.7% to Y157.28 billion, the camera business turned a profit after four years of losses. Sales of single lens reflex cameras, compact autofocus cameras and interchangeable lens increased 13% to Y78.88 billion, the company said. It said sales of its F5 single lens reflex camera were "very profitable." For the fiscal year ending March 1999, the company sees camera sales rising about 10% and semiconductor-related equipment sales falling a little more than 10%. Overall sales are seen dropping 1.3% to Y290 billion, pretax profit plunging to Y2 billion and net profit decreasing to Y1 billion. "This fiscal year the stepper business will make a profit, but the total amount will be less than last fiscal year because of lower production," said Kajiwara of Nikon. For this fiscal year, Nikon sees stepper sales for semiconductors falling about 20% to 340 units, what the company believes will be a bottoming out of the business. "Clearly, the company's forecasts suggest this will be a difficult year for the company," said Noriko Oki, a senior analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter who has an underperform rating on Nikon's shares. "Possibly toward the end of the fiscal year, there could be a recovery in steppers," she said. "If all goes well, sometime during this fiscal year, demand (for steppers) will hit bottom, and margins will hit bottom," Foster of ING Baring said. But he noted stepper shipments are tied up with general trends in the semiconductor industry such as the price of memory chips and said, "the longer it takes semiconductor companies to get out of the red, the longer it will take for them to spend more," on capital investment. Foster predicts that Nikon will see an earnings recovery in the fiscal year ending in March 2000, with group net profit amounting to Y17 billion after what he forecast will be a profit of around Y3 billion this fiscal year.