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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee who wrote (63467)	9/3/1998 10:59:00 AM
From: Rif Kamil, M.D	Respond to of 176387

Dear Lee: Your points are very well made. I do not assume that economic downturns are in synchrony. The pattern is more like a domino game or a "wave" as a ball-game. The Asian crisis stared more than a year ago. Its effects are slow to arrive on these shores. Its just that the waves are getting more pronounced with more and more of the spectators taking part. Witness Russia and (perhaps even more disturbing, the state interference in the Hong Kong market).The Canadian economy (principally resource driven) will be severely effected by Asia (big customers for lumbar, metals etc) and even more so as the Russians start dumping oil, gold and metals onto the market. If Canada sinks then the US will be influenced. In a global wave downturn DELL cannot sustain extremely high PE ratios. Even if its PE ratio stabilized at TWICE the tech-stock average it still bodes for a significant downward pressure in its price. Drew, I have been burnt a couple of times by selling DELL (reltatively speaking .. I bought at 30 last year and sold at 70 earlier this year) but a PE of 40 might be more reasonable in a recession environment. By the way, this is a great stock to day-trade given its high level of gyrations.