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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bhag Karamchandani who wrote (5252)	9/3/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Bhag: >> ALL THIS IS SIMPLY AN EXPRESSION OF AN OPINION. NO MORE. EMOTIONAL LONGS ARE REQUESTED TO DISREGARD THIS IF YOU DON'T AGREE. << Chuckle. Point well-taken. 3340..... I can confidently say that AGPH's interest in continuing the trial is genuine. We should all look forward, with enthusiasm, to the data and its contributions to our knowledge regarding the growth of primary tumors and their metastases. The trials are blinded. What do participants in this thread want, magic? The preclinical and phase I data convinced AGPH, the FDA and at least one private investor (me) that 3340 was worth testing in expanded trials. I get really p*ssed at some participants in this thread..... AGPH is struggling, with intense sincerity, to control certain cancers. We will see the data when the data is available. The concept.... finding something other than poisons that selectively work in cancer cells..... is sound. Can we use BBIOY results as an indicator? That will again involve "opinion", but I lean toward "yes". Does the fact that AGPH is working on a third-generation MMPI indicate a willingness to cannibalize 3340? Certainly, and we'd be stupid to ignore such, just as we'd be stupid to ignore efforts at (and comments from) Chiroscience. Why the hell are some in this thread talking about the termination of 3340 trials before the data has been collected? Greed is making a few contributors to this thread look really, really silly. Closing comment..... the tracking Oncology unit..... I no longer have an equity position in AGPH, as my straddle has expired and it has been awhile since I owned any shares. I therefore won't be voting. If I were, however, I'd vote yes and give management and myself more flexibility going forward. Rick

To: Bhag Karamchandani who wrote (5252)	9/3/1998 10:03:00 PM
From: George T. Santamaria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

It would be very interesting if one were to be very tough-minded and compare the cumulative earnings of AGPH's profitable quarters to the last 11 years or so of cumulative losses. I do believe that one gets a deficit. Kind of like considering a curve of sunken cash vs time. I think that one could show that we still have yet to realize a net gain after all these years, never mind earning a reasonable rate of return on the sunken cash. Actually, for the reported success of Viracept, the profit margins have turned out be a miserable 5% or so and they appear to be headed lower. Recent trends have been very unhealthy. If one would project a sunken cash curve into the future with current AIDS projects, I do believe that you cannot see the day when we get ahead. The risk discount normally assigned to future Viracept earnings is sustantial. The current new AIDS drug projects and remune will contribute very little to future expacted earnings because the average chance of success is probably less than 25%. In another words there is a substantial risk that all three projects will spend over $100M and contribute zero to future earnings. I am relating my opinion, which is based strictly on my intuition. Haven't gathered the facts yet.