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Microcap & Penny Stocks : THNS - Technest Holdings (Prev. FNTN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Frederick who wrote (5187)	9/3/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: don roberson	Respond to of 15313

Or will we see it this evening. Also, how do you feel now about FNTN without getting specific. EXCITED? More so than before? Spill your guts man. Let it out.

To: Tom Frederick who wrote (5187)	9/3/1998 5:31:00 PM
From: Michael T Currie	Respond to of 15313

Here, think about this while you are waiting... Right, I'm going to give Christopher's suggestion a shot, `mental masturbation' or not. I work with hydrocarbon reserves calculations on a daily basis. The FNTN situation seems to have a lot of similarities to rank wildcat exploration, so I will approach it by that method. Each case (minimum, most likely, and maximum) depends entirely upon my own assumptions, so feel free to argue differently as you see fit. The basic data is crude because of the lack of information, but I think this serves as a valuable exercise in `what could be'. I guess we could choose mid 1999 as a reference point for this snapshot. Minimum Case Revenues/Client - intranet construction and maintenance: $0.5 MM No. Of Clients: 5 IDB Revenues: 0 (deal not consummated) Total Revenues: $2.5 MM Company Expenses (salaries, hardware, miscellaneous): $1.0 MM Consulting Contractor Fees: $2.0 MM Taxes: $0 (tax loss carryforward) No. Shares Outstanding: 25 million (share sales to cover ongoing expenses) Profit (Loss): ($0.5 MM) Profit (Loss) Per Share: ($0.02) `Most Likely' Case Revenues/Client - intranet construction and maintenance: $1.0 MM No. Of Clients: 10 IDB Revenues: $2.0 MM Hill Publishing Revenues: $5.0 MM (10000 clients @ $500/client) Total Revenues: $17.0 MM Company Expenses (salaries, hardware, miscellaneous): $2.0 MM Consulting Contractor Fees: $5.0 MM Taxes: $3 MM (after tax loss carryforwards) No. Shares Outstanding: 19 million (as recently suggested) Profit (Loss): $7.0 MM Profit (Loss) Per Share: $0.37 Maximum Case Revenues/Client - intranet construction and maintenance: $1.5 MM No. Of Clients: 15 IDB Revenues: $4.0 MM Hill Publishing Revenues: $12.5 MM (25000 clients @ $500/client) Total Revenues: $39.0 MM Company Expenses (salaries, hardware, miscellaneous): $3.0 MM Consulting Contractor Fees: $6.0 MM Taxes: $5 MM (after tax loss carryforwards) No. Shares Outstanding: 16 million (company repurchases) Profit (Loss): $25.0 MM Profit (Loss) Per Share: $1.56 This exercise is not designed to reflect reality. I certainly don't have access to the required numbers. I have made a very strong assumption that unit costs will fall rapidly because of a degree of cookie cutter type service. Fees rise in absolute terms through the three cases due to the customization aspect, but fall as a percentage of revenues.What it should do is make you think about the possibilities. It is marginally better than saying `I think the stock price will be $x.xx at the end of the year'. Have fun with your daydreams. Mike