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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (26402)	9/3/1998 9:05:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

rbf, re GM, have you looked at the other General? GE, that is - the ultimate bellweather. It dipped below it's 200 day M/A on Monday, bounced back above on Tuesday, then went under again late yesterday and lost more today. BTW, GE has not been below it's 200 day M/A since 1994. Couple that with the bottomless trannies (and Dow Theory sell) and the continuing fall in bond yields (in spite of probable Japanese selling), and I'd say Mr. Market is trying to tell us something about the prospects for the economy. A month ago it was just a whisper, but he's speaking up a bit louder now. I'd say 6400-6500 (30% down from the top plus a little extra to carry to April '97 lows) is very likely and, since we investors tend to go to extremes, lower is far from unlikely. The question is how long last fall's trading range will provide support. Bob PS: 800 or less on the S&P. A bit farther on a percentage basis, but on a valuation basis, a 20 PE would put the S&P there or lower. JMO, BWDIK?, etc.

To: robert b furman who wrote (26402)	9/3/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Bob; We are expanding the list to 53 stocks now and GM will be in it, but I'm not sure she will make a key momentum play. The thing we are building around is ( liquid )market cap and momentum, as the indexers force that on the market. Looking back to see when momentum would have us change or re-weight our holdings if we maintained 15 key ones in the group. For the model we are making nothing else matters. Earnings news nothing, but momentum, as I can't back test the news for all of them over that time period, of course I'l drop the oil stocks just like I know I would have when oil price droped, and at this point of banks only regional banks could go in. Things I know of and don't have to look up will effect the way we kick them around. But mostly momentum. It's a shame but that's the way the market monster works. I'm sure any one could find some tulip that would run faster at times, but not 15 tulips, that are liquid, and hold up well in down markets. I'm not sure at what market cap we will set as a min. but it won't be small, however momentum may have us dropping below the original T19 we did. Jim