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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: silicon warrior who wrote (8141)	9/4/1998 5:57:00 PM
From: limtex	Respond to of 12468

SW - 1. As regards Dow 6,000 next week and Dow 5,000 possibly after that I would say that sadly the odds are probably in favour of seeing those numbers as things look this evening. There was a fund manager on CNBC this week saying that S&P 500 at 900 is coming soon. Thinkig about it after yet another week of this it seems to me that S&P 500 at 750 is even more likely. Your post has made me realize that we have been a bit optimistic and we should really have been selling not buying. I think its probably becuase there are so many young kids (IB's and Fund Managers) out there that have never know anything except markets that go up. We've been blinded by the crap they put out about targets and values and the like. OK if the Investment Banks and Funds are going to employ these guys then we should be able to take advantage of their weakness very easily. Its clear that these guys have so litle knowledge and skill in what they are supposed to be experts at that guessing them should be easy. We should be able to predict it. We should try it together. Lets look at the diary for the next few weeks and see what information we can see that is planned. Whatever it is good or bad the market at best will probably still drop prices just a little and if its bad or not good the market will tank. We know now about Friday afternoons and all three day weekends. We know when Japan is supposed to do things and we know they won't do them and the market will tank. We know there is going to be a lot of tax loss selling I mean a whole lot in the next three months. Lets just ask a selection of the tax advisors and accountants when they think the best time to do that is and then take the average and factor that in. Then there are probably some actions that funds will take in order to look in their meagre profits. They will be selling too. On reflection the main question I have now is who in their right mind would want to buy stocks at all any more? I can't see anyone buying stocks for a very long time after this is all over and clearly it has only just started never mind finished. Maybe day traders will buy a bit but they'll get rid of every last stock by 3.59 every night. If you value your health and want to sleep then don't own any stocks at the end of each day. Anyway I'd love to start preparing a diary/database and buying puts on the Dow and the S&P 500. You're right its a no brainer. Whatever the Russians do the market isn't going to like it and you can bet the farm on the fact that with a week or two someone is going to come out with a profit warning and in the months of Sep/Oct/Nov you know for sure the market will tank. 2. There is no question that the news is getting worse by the day. Asia then Japan, then China then Russia then S. America. I wonder where next? Maybe back ot Asia again. All of this is very simply a reflection of the fact that confidence in growth and business is declining world wide. Plain and simple decline in confidence. Funny "exposure to emerging markets" a common buzz word now by financial comentators. "Emerging" for heavens sake...well they ain't emerging any more. They are history for the next decade at least and good ridance. How many of them were run by corrupt megalomaniacs? How many of them had a real estate boom which has now gone bang. How many of them had almost no financial controls from regular accounting to banking supervision. But don't blame them blame the IB's who lent them our money and took fees for doing it. They encouraged those jerks to think they were running real businesses and running real economies. Those IB's and smooth talking well manicured old school white shoe bankers in Manhattan and elsewhere should have to pay their net worth back to the banks whose assets they lent to the biggest collection of crazys since the bar scene in Star Wars. Still we do have one thing going for us and that is an election on a few weeks time. Now one thing politicians absolutely hate is to get kicked out and there are 120 million investors in the US most of them of voting age. Now remember that neat catch phrase "Its the economy stupid"......well Bill wrong....." It's the market stupid". That should be our catch phrase from now on. Everywhere possible. "Its the market stupid". Now the more legislators in office hear this if the market is tanking they will start to get very scared and ask Mr G to get out there and do something. I know its not much to rely on but at least its something. 3. None of the above has much to do with WCII. In a year from now WCII revenues and customers will have expanded hugely and according to plan if not better. A year form then and we are talking about a major national telecom player and that make the shares worth in excess of $100 each. $20 to $100 in two years is still a very good rate of return and a lot better than the 3%, 4% or 5% you will get on bonds or cash. Regards, L