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To: William H Huebl who wrote (5129)	9/3/1998 7:10:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Bill, let's look at it in detail <<UK Service Industry Hit By Economic Slowdown>> It is important to note that this is service industry, for two reasons: (i) UK manufacturing industry has already been in recession for months now; (ii) service industry is a lagging indicator. << Evidence that the strong pound and international economic turbulence is beginning to hit the UK's service industry has come in a gloomy new survey. Growth in the sector fell back for the fifth month in a row to its weakest rate since the influential Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply survey began six years ago.>> It's been falling for five months already, and the survey was done before (i) Russian crisis had effect, (ii) both US and UK stock market selloffs. Taking into account that things are also getting worse in Asia, what's there to prevent it from continuing downhill? <<The CIPS survey index of business activity in the service sector fell from 55.9 points in July to 54.3 in August. A figure above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.>> At the rate of -1.6% per month, it's gonna be 52.7% this month, and less than 50% in late Oct. This estimate is probably optimistic, because it does not take into consideration the new negative influences of Russia and markets. Again, service industry is a lagging indicator, and it's the only remaining relatively strong sector. Most stocks are related to industrial/manufacturing sector. Take a look at FTSE, it peaked out in April-May, basically - it knows.