Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (26410)	9/4/1998 7:37:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Good morning, Bill: So no change in your forecast? You expecting a bad forecast? No immediate change in my forecast. It would have required a solid up day (100 + Dow), but the bias was pretty negative for an indecision day. My forecast: 75 points UP on the DOW tomorrow. Up?? I would have thought it was a foregone conclusion that it has to be solid down day (crash or no crash). Who in his right mind would go long before this long weekend? If I were a daytrader, I would go short on any morning rally. The Dow could well fall below 7400 today initiating a replay of Monday, but Tuesday may not be a replay of last Tuesday. If the market is not solidly down, I will take profits on some of my puts. Russia is in the focus again. The confirmation of Chernomyrdin by the Duma is almost certain to fail. The military made an open threat of a coup yesterday. While a coup would obviously be a big blow for world markets, I think that the more likely implication is that the threat will force Yeltsin and the Duma to hammer out an agreement over the weekend and have a new government installed on Monday. That could be a short-term positive for the market and be good for a minor rally. However, it is likely to be very short-lived. The program looks unworkable and is not very market friendly (hyper-inflation, market controls, more power to the communists and oligarchs). Some further thoughts: Rubin: Rubin may have moved the market yesterday afternoon, but neither he nor any other government person has the credibility/power to move the market decisively (well, they could if they did something very foolish). Greenspan on the other had has, but is unlikely to intervene at the present levels. This bearish thread has become remarkably bullish (if only short-term)! I am not necessarily interpreting that as a contrarian indicator, but will be watching carefully. Regards, Phil