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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Panita who wrote (23771)	9/3/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 70976

Panita, I agree that amat will hold a premium, but your csco example is statistically inaccurate. Csco went from ~75 and touched 46 before moving up. I was on the csco boards at si, arguing with folks everday that they were missing the opportunity of a lifetime. In any case, the point is that even csco drew back about 40% from top to bottom. Most importantly, nothing was wrong with csco's business. They kept rolling along. This whole year has been crazy with amat. It should have held up well, but this well?! What first appeared to be an overreaction, last November, wasn't. Now the sector is at lower levels than 96, but amat holds a huge premium. It really should sink to the upper teens. Business is horrible, and could be bad for another year. Even if the stock anticipates a turn in business by 6 months, the stock turn should be 3-6 months out from here. That leaves time for a lot of downside. I will get more interested when Teri, Aki and BB buy. Until then, I am going to sleep.

To: Panita who wrote (23771)	9/3/1998 7:25:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 70976

p. the fact cisco's earnings growth didn't stop had no affect on their not dropping as low as their competitors, huh? the fact amat will lose money for quite some time equates to cisco beating the death out of their competitors while raking in profits, right? grasp at straws in a deep river and you may drown. amat hit $12-13 not too long ago and it CAN do it again. even worse, too.

To: Panita who wrote (23771)	9/3/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: Wildstar	Respond to of 70976

IMHO unlikely for example take a look at Cisco; last year and earlier in 1998, all other networkers where in the Toilet (ie BAY, 3Com, Cabletron, etc.) yet Cisco held its own, minus a brief visit to the mid 50's. Didn't 3COM, Cabletron, and BAY have problems meeting earnings?