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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/3/1998 8:28:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Predicting Intels stock price in 5 years simply cannot be done. If you believe that history repeats then you should do quite well. The thing is that you should believe in the company that you are working for. Who better than you to know the value of that company. If you're looking for a man with experience in the area of receiving a "gift" of gazillions of stock options then Paul Engel is your man. Jim

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/3/1998 9:12:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Badger, You are definitely joining up with a company who is currently tightening its belt and shaping up for the fight ahead, thanks to Craig Barrett's call to arms. I don't think anyone at Intel is being fooled into thinking that the company can continue to enjoy fat profit margins like it did a few years back. But it seems that even if the margins are reduced, Wall Street will still appreciate a company who can maintain above 80% market share and keep it with efficiency. My opinion is that there will be a sharp upturn in the price of the stock in mid-1999, after Katmai takes hold, and another upturn in late 2000, after Merced. Celeron and Xeon are just placeholders to keep Intel in the game - Celeron until Katmai comes out, Xeon until Merced. You may be right about Katmai, especially if Intel markets KNI (a.k.a. MMX2) as well as it marketed MMX. However, Celeron is here to stay, and it's volumes will continue to increase and represent a larger percentage of Intel's processor portfolio. Katmai is not going to replace Celeron, since Intel is positioning both towards different markets. Xeon is also here to stay well into the next decade. Intel is currently working on Williamette, the true P7 for IA-32. You can bet that this baby will carry on IA-32 for years to come, starting with Xeon servers. As for Merced, Intel is scrambling to make sure Merced is released by mid-2000. Albert Yu is personally making sure of that, and may be under the gun because of this. However, despite all the hoopla about IA-64, it's still only going to represent a very small part of Intel's total volume. McKinley, the follow-on to Merced, will probably take off from where Merced started volume-wise, but it's still unclear as to how much revenue the IA-64 line will earn for Intel because of its relatively low volumes. Also remember that Intel is a very diverse company. Just recently, its Network Interface Cards for servers earned a PC Magazine Editor's Choice award. Several years ago, Intel had nothing to do with motherboard chipsets; now, Intel practically dictates the platform. Intel also does a lot of research into software areas like compiler technologies, 3D graphics, even Java. Much of the fruits of this research can easily be spun off into hot new markets. My bottom line? Intel is still a very good stock to invest in. Although the price won't rise as sharply as it did in the past, it's definitely not going to be stagnant for the next five years either. I think this is definitely a stock to hold for the long term, even after the recent market troubles. By the way, which Intel site are you going to, and what's your job going to be? Tenchusatsu

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/3/1998 9:32:00 PM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

I'm about to be handed several thousand lottery tickets - in the form of Intel options. I'm going to accept a job at INTC and I'd like opinions from this thread on what exactly my options will be worth in 5 years. Stock price appreciation is based on earnings growth. Ask yourself these questions- 1. Are CPU prices are going up? 2. Is Intel's market share increasing? 3. Do you think that first time computer buyers (largely in third world countries) are looking for expensive computers? There are lots and lots of companies jumping into the CPU business. If Intel can find a way to grow earnings in the midst of this morass, it will be one of the great marketing accomplishments of all time. Scumbria PS: Sorry Paul. The Cyrix thread is getting too slow.

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/3/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Steve Porter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Badger, Congradulations. While I'm _NOT_ Intel's biggest fan (I think that honor _must_ go to Paul E.), you have taken a job with a company that is unquestionably one of the most dominant in the world. As for your options. Well let me put (no pun intended) it to you this way: If you're getting 'em for free, it doesn't really matter does it ;-)...Seriously I think with a 5 year standpoint your options will be worth something, if for no other reason than the continued growth of the industry. Even if Intel loses 5-10% of market share a year, as long as the market grows by more than they lose, they will continue to make lots and lots of money. Good luck and keep in touch. Steve

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/3/1998 10:43:00 PM
From: Ali Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Badger, <..several thousand lottery tickets - in the form of Intel options.> I am curious, are you offered any salary in addition to these options? Just curious...

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/3/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: L. Adam Latham	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Badger: Re: I'm going to accept a job at INTC... Congrats - you must have some pretty awesome skills to be hired during this "rough" time at Intel. When I joined Intel in 1995, I didn't expect anything out of my stock option grant - I was happy enough with the salary and other benefits. My options were nearly worthless for the first year, so don't get discouraged. Good luck. Adam

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/3/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: Jeff Fox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Badger, re:"options ...worth in 5 years." I hope you keep in mind that your options are not a gift, but an incentive. What your options become will be determined in large measure by your contributions. So congratulations. Now go do great things! Jeff

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/4/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: Dale J.	Respond to of 186894

Badger, I'd like opinions from this thread on what exactly my options will be worth in 5 years. I think INTC will do well over then next five years. AMD and NSM presented a formidable challenge to Intel in 1997. But since that time Intel has become stronger while AMD/NSM have become weaker. To the detriment of AMD and NSM, Intel's current product line is very competitive, and I believe selling prices will become more stable. Areas of growth are: XEON/Merced - a huge market with high margins and plenty of room to grow. Networking - They continue to make progress StrongArm - AutoPC, TV set Top boxes, Internet Appliances Desktop - With the new Celeron they may even recapture some of the lost market share from AMD. Even if they have to share the market with AMD, the market for PC's will continue to grow. In countries like China the market is a virtually untapped market. IMO, it won't be entirely smooth sailing for INTC, but the future looks much better today than it did 12 months ago. Good Luck. Dale

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/4/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: nihil	Respond to of 186894

RE: Options valuation You face the standard options pricing problem. There are two principal models, binomial and Black-Scholes and you should run both on your actual data. The key problem is estimated INTC's beta, or volatility. See a standard finance text like Damodaran, A. Investment Valuation Wiley, New York, 1996. There may be a computable model on the web somewhere. You should also learn about options (especially LEAPS)(you have a few years) periodically to lock in some of the values of your calls, even before they vest. Of course, but don't leave before you vest. All in all, its a wonderful opportunity for you. Calls on 1000 shares at 80 with past growth could be worth $160,000 in five years, and if your boss thinks you perform well you will add more every year. In addition, there is the discount stock purchase plan.

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/5/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Badger - when thinking about the gain on your options, remember that your cost basis is 0. Lets say you get your options at 80. when stock goes to 81, your percent gain is infinite. when it goes to 82, you gain 100% over the position at 81. Your evaluation should be based on the difference between the strike price and current price. Keep in mind that sales will almost certainly be taxed as ordinary income. As a guy who has had some experience in this, I would suggest holding any options of this class until the strike price is a fraction of the current price (say 20%). That may seem like a fantasy now but it has happened to me several times, and if you sell early you will find that you have decreased your leverage. As an exercise, do a spreadsheet where you sell the options then immediately buy back any available instrument on Intel stock. See if you can begin to approach the risk-reward profile of the pre-sale position. BTW I have found Black-Scholes to be completely useless in evaluating employee stock options, even though many use this method. IMHO you would do better with a magic 8-ball or ouija board. FWIW...

To: Badger who wrote (63884)	9/9/1998 1:07:00 PM
From: greg s	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Badger, re: what exactly my options will be worth in 5 years Best wishes for a long and prosperous career at Intel. As for the worth of your options 5 years out, it is hard to pinpoint. I am sure that you will profit handsomely. My only advice is ... don't nail yourself to a 5 year timeline. Your options cost you nothing until you exercise them (tax consequences). I speak from experience. I worked for Intel for 16 years and retired this month ... at age 46! Work hard, keep that stock flying! Greg.