Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob Shilling who wrote (611)	9/3/1998 8:29:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1301

Oil was up $1 a barrel, partly due to Russian export problems, but also on Nigeria sabotage and the hurricane in the gulf. The higher oil goes, the more hard currency for Russia. Lukoil has already said it pumped more oil in the first 6 months of this year than last year. The street value of the ruble is at 17. This represents a decline in value much worse than Korea's and Malaysia's currencies. I think it will settle much lower especially if the political situation improves. Anyway, Soros expected 25% would be good enough. With the "official" rate now in the 13's the balance of trade deficit should easily be positive. Exports may drop a little, but imports have already dropped way off. Call me optimistic, but if the political situation uncertainty ends tomorrow and Victor C. is voted in as PM, there should be a big rally in the RTS and the ruble. Then looking forward, Russia will definitely be back on the road to recovery after most of the smaller banks fail or merge and after oil prices get closer to 1997 levels.