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To: marginmike who wrote (14549)	9/3/1998 10:27:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

<<all we want to know is does the stock go up or down>> looks like it goes down: techstocks.com made new 52W low today ...

To: marginmike who wrote (14549)	9/4/1998 12:06:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

*Technical Analysis* Whoa! I'm on my own now. Gregg and Marginmike both think the future is unknowable. Marginmike said: "....My definition of theory is man's generalizations of events they can't control. Its all worthless."..."We live in the real world, in which there is no way with certainty to .....jam into generalization and theories the events that are transpiring around you." Gregg says we can't predict the future. Why on earth would anybody buy any shares at all if they don't think they can predict the future. Sure, we can't pin it down to the last allegedly spontaneously fissioning U238. But we can make some pretty good generalisations. Not certainty, but near enough to it. Joe, 'Chimp' seems right to me that the theory of Black-Holes and Gaussian distributions isn't really applicable to investment dollars, but I bet a lot of people think the Black-Holes theory is exactly what has happened to their money. People don't herd in a Gaussian fashion. Especially where money is concerned. I suppose I'm exaggerating Gregg and marginmike's positions because I'm sure they don't think it totally unknowable. It's all a question of degree. People have got the big lump over their eyebrows for exactly the purpose of modelling the external world and predicting the future. You'll notice that the shorter-lived animals have less eyebrow superstructure. [Making this up as I go, but it looks really good]. Hence, you won't find rhinoceros at the markets. They munch grass and charge lions. Simplistic models such as Gaussian and Black-Holes won't be worth anything because D E Shaw and Co, with their PhDs in maths, powerful computers, fast trading connections, billions of dollars, ever advancing algorithms modelling in real time a wide array of dollar flows are where it's at for trading, models and theories. [Making that up too!] They are scaling and gutting all the novices who think they are day traders, technical analysts, etc. Mqurice