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To: uu who wrote (14763)	9/4/1998 1:40:00 AM
From: Andy M.	Respond to of 25814

Addi, One way to look at the Brown report, which is more speculative than most in that it tries not just to predict the next quarter or so but the trends for the whole industry, is to compare it to Kurlak's reasons for upgrading LSI a few months ago or Shane's analysis of the company back in March. All three analysts are knowledgeable and defended their opinions well. It's awfully hard to know who's right but why should the negative view be any more final and absolute than the positive views were a few months ago? In other words, why give an analyst absolute credibility in sounding a stock's death knell? We couldn't invest the positive views with absolute credibility. They seemed awfully plausible at the time--just as plausible as this new negative scenario, in fact. But they proved at least temporarily wrong. Kurlak had to reverse himself. Yet why trust the reversal more than the original optimism? What's clouding the picture for LSI is the general downturn in semis and questions over whether some of their hot new products--DVD, Digital cameras, fibre channel etc., will catch on. LSI has confounded analysts, and itself, in significant ways. Whether it confounds them to the upside or the downside doesn't matter to the little point I'm making. The fact is, a year ago, especially a year and a half ago, no analyst was anywhere near to predicting how LSI's actual earnings would turn out in 1998. That's what's maddening about predicting the movements of individual stocks--even ones you think you've researched a lot and think you know well. But what it means is that any bold analyst's prediction can turn out to be awfully wrong, as you yourself have said a million times. The negative scenario makes so much sense right now because the stock is in the toilet and management just warned again, but Wilf also said that the long term outlook was still good. Is Wilf unaware of what Brown is talking about? I doubt it. But of course Wilf has been wrong before and so have these analysts. Where does that leave us? not knowing for sure, which is a damn uncomfortable position to be in with these huge losses most of us have. Sorry for this rambling post but contemplating my losses on this stock has turned my brain to cheese. BTW, Gruntal I think downgraded to buy a few weeks ago, and lowered the price target to $30. It was posted on this thread. Someone correct me if I'm wrong here. Good luck. Andy

To: uu who wrote (14763)	9/4/1998 2:58:00 AM
From: Tung Ly	Respond to of 25814

Hi Addi, what happen to LSI ? I was on vacation for a month, I have no idea LSI drop this low. Will we see LSI at single digit ? LSI management team having problem with their credibility for sure. Good luck, Tony

To: uu who wrote (14763)	9/4/1998 3:05:00 AM
From: rairden	Respond to of 25814

My last communication with Gruntal was Aug 18, when they were perfectly happy to encourage a commitment of new money into LSI, just before the earnings warning. Their most recent analysis from Donaldson Lufkin Jenrette, which Gruntal distributes on its own letterhead, was dated July 23 and reiterated a "Buy" recommendation with 12-mo target of $33. "We believe the current valuation ($20) is attractive and discounts all of the negative information on the company." "...the stock is particularly suitable for value investors." The individual who wrote that report wisely chose to remain anonymous. Not so fortunate were Mona Eraiba and Vincent Benedetti who signed their names to Gruntal's August 10 "Investment Research Morning Comments." Headline "LSI Logic -- Reiterate Strong Buy." 12-mo target $40, suitable for the Agressive Growth investor. Rationale was completion of the Symbios acquisition, viewed as a positive. "On a valuation basis, the stock is inexpensive and we would use current weakness ($20) as a buying opportunity." $40 target based on 23.3x multiple to $1.70 1999 EPS estimate. I don't know how much "analysis" really goes into these reports. There isn't much detail presented. Looks like just guessing with the same public information and obvious economic trends that we are all aware of. Reply #14458 (Carlson) reported the more recent Gruntal downgrade and revised estimates to $30 target and $1.45 1999 EPS. I haven't seen anything new in print yet from Gruntal. I'll ask. I am seriously considering trimming my LSI holdings by 10 percent at tomorrow's open, and continuing on a biweekly basis down to 50 percent before the Oct 22 earnings announcement. Taking my losses now to avoid the Christmas rush. Got on this train going the wrong direction. People say it will stop and turn around soon, but lately there is concern that it might be on its final run. But geez, are there any trains going the right direction?? And are they going as fast as LSI might if it finally turns around?? (I keep hearing "All Aboard" over on the Cisco and Lucent tracks.)

To: uu who wrote (14763)	9/4/1998 1:40:00 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 25814

Addi, The Alex Brown report is spot on in terms of the general ASIC market. However that does not mean that LSI is dead. If they do not innovate and move into new markets they will be dead. Here's what they are trying to do and some things they could do (these are just ideas): 1. Transition into more IP based solutions. The purchase of Symbios gets them into SCSI, RAID, Mixed-Signal ASICs. 2. They have a good business in MIPs cores and ARM cores. They could greatly expand this by purchasing a 486/586 core such as win-chip from IDT (or buy IDT). With the huge expansion of low cost PC,CE, home networking etc these are fast growing markets. 3. VLSI would be a great fit for them as VLSI does not have a state of the art fab. and would get them into some complementary markets such as wireless. In conclusion LSI is in a transition in it's business. If they do the right things and the market does not implode you could see a $50 stock 3-4 years out from now. The high tech business is like this where there are limitless possibilities and cut-throat competition, and if you stay still you are roadkill. For those of you looking back 1-2 years and expecting the stock to simply rebound in a semi - up cycle you may be dissapointed.

To: uu who wrote (14763)	9/4/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: akmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Addi-Hang in there my friend and don't look too much for answers from analysts whether they work for BT Alex Brown or Merrill Lynch or anyone else. They may have more resources or access or intellect than you and me but they don't have nearly as much as the market as a whole. And certainly not as much as Wilf Corrigan in terms of knowledge or investment in LSI. We are somewhere far along in the current downcycle for the semiconductor industry and LSI is changing its business model on the run as it were. Will they do everything right? Will they win bigger than anyone else? Nobody knows(even Wilf)! But we don't have to be able to answer those questions affirmatively to come out real well from this point.