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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19904)	9/4/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: Joe S Pack	Respond to of 50167

Ike, Well written analysis. I agree on most points. Here are a few points for further thinking. 1. As of yesterday's discloser most US banks, brokerage houses and UK'sBarkleys all lost around US $2.35Billion. (there is a link if you go to yahoo and search on news related to any of major banks.) It is not clear how much of these loses will be compensated with US tax payers money which I think is very minimal. Hence the lose is real. This may put lot of pressure on AG to lower interest rate. 2. As for HK, they had around $70B so in reserve. They invested $15B last week to bet against hedge funds and it seems they made around $21B. Not a bad investment in a couple of days. 3. As far Russia, its market is a joke. they trade few million shares and their market cap. is very small. And hence direct effect is negliable as for WS is concerned. But their secondary effect such as Germany losing tens of billions, US banks losing a few billions and political instability in surrounding regions are the things worth noticing. I think political side won't be a problem. At last, Clinton made a smart move in this trip meeting all the oppositions and having a chat with the communist leader. I think he is betting on Yelstin seeing a retirement home soon and whoever comes to power should understand the game of G8. This I think is very positive. 4. I am in agreement with your argument about these Hedge fund guys being vultures no doubt. I agree that there are some countries that needs lesson to straighten their reckless spending habit but hedging as a profession to bring down poor countries is crime. If they try the same trick on smart countries they will meet their enemy on a level playing hand and hence lose big sums. If these hedge guys go recklessly against powerful nations like US they will be in jail. 4. However, US NAPM numbers are in downward slope and US corporate profits started shrinking (this will be confirmed this quarter IMHO). Unless these trends make turn around, as a long term investor I will wait for some more bottom fishing. I am neither a nimble trader like you guys nor a index guy. -Karun