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Non-Tech : Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (2264)	9/4/1998 9:33:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6439

" I agree that, at some time, we will see a turnaround in the market environment". 1) Yes, you are naive, very naive. In a global deflationary environment, lower interest rates are NOT Bullish for stocks. Take a look at Japanese Interest Rates! It has very Bearish implications. 2) The Fed will not lower rates at its September meeting. Wage Pressures in this country are creating a corporate earnings recession. Greenspan began his irrational exuberance tirades at Dow 6300. Why should he lower rates when he thinks the stock market is still over-valued? 3) We are offically now in a Bear Market. The move from Dow 9337 to Dow 7375 was over 20%. The average stock is down much more. Most investors who are long and down a lot of money here need to argue on behalf of a market turnaround in order to keep their sanity and justify their holdings. 4) In 30 Years, I am sure the U.S. Stock Market will be considerably higher than today. But we will head down to Dow 6450 by the end of October. Do you look at the " Tick " throughout the trading day? It is highly negative, which indicates tremendous amount of selling pressure. Money Managers and Institutions are selling most stocks to death in order to raise cash. Mutual Fund shareholders are selling like crazy also. 5) In this Grizzley Bearish Environment, the first rate cut ( if we get one ) will produce a rally for a day or two; but then a major sell off. Why? Because the Reality of the Rate Cut confirms Investors Fear that Deflation is near, which produced the Bear Market to begin with. 6) I'm bullish on MO, but that's about it. I can't short enough stocks in this environment. As we head lower and lower, there will always be those naive complacent Bulls providing fire for the Market's decline, just as the Bears did when the Bull was alive and kicking. 7) This Bear Market will eventually end. The Question is when. Trends have a way of going to extremes. It will be no different here. Protect your long portfolio, if you have not already done so. Bear Markets typically retrace 50% of the previous bull markets gains. From December 94 at Dow 3600 to July 98 at 9337, that's about 2850 points. Let's hope the Dow bottoms at 6450. 8) Sorry, if I'm Bearish. I was bullish for 15 Years. This Market is still over-valued given the bleak outlook for corporate earnings.