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To: SecularBull who wrote (63699)	9/4/1998 11:34:00 AM
From: Rich Young	Respond to of 176388

A-greed. They will be well into the future. By the way, I don't know if this has been brought up here since the "crash", but does anyone find it ironic that Ralph Acampora came out a while back calling for the dow to hit 7400 (everyone laughed), and that's EXACTLY what it did (intraday)? Talk about your self-fulfilling prophecies! Also, there was a lot of talk back in October when the Asian crisis first became an issue and the market "tanked" to I think 7200 (?) that that low would have to be thoroughly retested before a solid advance could take place. Now, I know that 10 months is a long time and many could argue that a solid advance DID take place, but it now appears that it was not so solid after all, maybe just a macro-level dead-cat bounce. I'm not sure how low we'd have to go in the present "crisis" but I have this sneaking feeling that this is the retest that was spoken of earlier. Finally, I have a theory that we will not see a pronounced year-end tax selling effect at the end of this year as we have in previous years, since I believe that many first-time investors are hanging on now but waiting for the first good bounce to reallocate out of stocks. Thus, I expect selling to be more evenly distributed over the next few months than concentrated at the end of the year. The one factor I can't get a good handle on is Roth IRA conversion. I expect a wave of last-minute conversion this year to take advantage of the favorable tax treatment, but I haven't fully thought through the implications yet. Rich