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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: edward miller who wrote (7615)	9/4/1998 4:19:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 42834

Shouldn't companies like LSI, VLSI, MU, NSM, AMD and IDTI show some improvement BEFORE the likes of AMAT, UTEK and LRCX come back to life? I think these issues will drop before they start a significant rally just based on what their customers' stocks are doing. So my opinion is that Bob just plane missed these issues, and his response is nothing more than to say if you wait long enough (as in years from now) they will eventually be winners. Well, I say so what. I am not a pro, but I can try to give a nutshell here. Otherwise, probably look for more on my website in the future under suite101.com Are any of the companies you listed "Leaders?". One could argue they are not. I would argue that their management might not be very good either..... Intel is a leader and is well off record lows. By my account, under $70 was a buy and I have had followers buy on my signal there just recently. Now Intel is $78.25. Other BIG semi users and leaders in their markets are IBM (IBM used to be the largest semi house just for their internal use....), HWP , Dell, Compaq, etc. These companies are doing OK as HWP has shown remarkable resiliancy with the downturn staying even. One could argue the Asian meltdown came from trying to compete in a difficult market by buying market share and running out of capital before they made the other companies go bankrupt. i.e. Build a fab in Korea, sell below cost and hope MU, etc go under then keep your prices steady and eventually make a profit as competition dies. Much more complex, but I believe it holds for many industries besides semi's. Anyway, chip demand is coming. Maybe not from any of the companies on your list, but whoever it comes from, we know where they will get the fab equipment - AMAT and whomever else survives. With ex CEO Bagley at LAM buying LOTs of stock at $20, I doubt he will be selling out at $12 worth of AMAT stock. With book value at $15....I took a chance. I'm not sure these companies go much lower than 0.5 Price to book so downside is not too bad compared to more UTEK. regards Kirk

To: edward miller who wrote (7615)	9/4/1998 10:09:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

"Shouldn't companies like LSI, VLSI, MU, NSM, AMD and IDTI show some improvement BEFORE the likes of AMAT, UTEK and LRCX come back to life?" Actually, they'll probably happen together. When semiconductor bookings improve, semiconductor equipment stocks improve. That pattern goes back many years. By way of confirmation, this week I had the opportunity to ask the CFO of a semiconductor equipment company when the stocks were going to recover, and he said, without hesitation, "When end-user demand recovers."