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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19965)	9/4/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: gerard mangiardi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

IQ what is the chance something positive will come out of Rubin's meeting with the Japanese this weekend. I think substantive statements could spark a huge rally next week, but as I am very humble in forecasting such things I wonder what your take is.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19965)	9/4/1998 6:29:00 PM
From: Front Beach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Those golds are looking real good now.... We need Wednesday/Thursday to make sure it wasn't just short covering... If it was, many people (including me) are going to be "stuck"holders, not just stockholders. SP Iqbal, nice calling on the 970/990 band

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19965)	9/4/1998 9:57:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Iqbal my friend in gay Paree........ if AG is talking about "deflation", not "inflation" anymore, lookout on Tues... we could see a gigantic relief rally of say, oh 300+++ points or so.... WOW!!! all bets are OFF for the bears.........:>}}}} now here's my numbers...we sold off from 9300 to 7400, a total of 1900 points...so we could retrace 50%...8400-8500 fast... however if "real" deflation is in the cards, then a recession "WILL" happen late in 99 as I thought...not good for Corp Profits & business in general... so while the "inital" response will be exciting and wildly bullish, the end result will be a major negative for us all.... i giveth, and taketh away, LOL<ggg>.........of course the rally will be tradable... DELL-AOL-LCOS-YHOO-GE-IBM ALL THE OILS(BIG OIL), LU-NOKA-WLA-SGP-CPQ-NSCP-ATHM-VOD-FON- man I could name a zillion... probably a 25-50% gain in the next 2 weeks, TILL earnings come out.... IKE we'll be rockin' & rollin' next week... Have a wonderful weekend, i'm having all the family over for a swim party, great food, and of course on Sunday here in the USA., we'll be betting every football game we can!!!!!!!!! Lay the points against the Eagles they suck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!............:>}

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19965)	9/5/1998 4:31:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (2nd Qtr.) Non-Financial, Corporate Productivity Remains Very Solid. Sept. 3, 1998 Generally, revisions to Productivity data are a non- event, and rightfully so. But today's release of the revisions to 2Q productivity are very interesting, not because of the revisions, but because it is the first look at 2Q productivity and unit labor costs for the sector called "non-financial corporations." The revisions to "non-farm business" productivity were negligible, 0.1% vs. minus 0.2%, which put unit labor cost increases in the 2Q at a 3.9% annual rate rather than a 4.1% annual rate. Nothing useful there. But, the 2Q annual rate of productivity increase for the "non-financial, corporate" sector was reported as 2.8% vs. the 1Q, better than the 2.6% increase in the 1Q vs. the 4Q. Also interesting, there is a fairly consistent pattern of quarterly increases for productivity in this sector (see top chart), which is not the case with the "non-farm business" series. The difference is that the BLS productivity for financial institutions is known to be greatly under-stated. Also, this series excludes partnerships and sole proprietorships, where again, the measurement problems are immense. So, while this "non-financial, corporate" series covers less of the GDP (52%) than the "non-farm" series (75%), it is significantly "better data". Mr. Greenspan has cited this series as his preferred measure. This data tell us that productivity gains are still alive and well, even in the 2Q when GDP growth nose-dived. As the middle chart shows, the yr/yr increase in the four quarter moving average is near 3% and still rising. The chart also shows unit labor costs up just 1.0% over the past year, which is less than half the 2.3% rate reflected in the "non-farm" series. On a quarterly annual rate basis, 2Q unit labor costs in the "non-financial, corporate" sector were up only 1.8%, again less than half the 3.9% reported for the "non-farm business" sector. Another thing this tells us, is that the profit margin decline shown in the GDP data is likely more due to revenue shortfalls than to rising labor costs. Corporations appear to still be offsetting those rising costs. With such healthy productivity figures, the Fed members fearing inflation should be less worried.