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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (3809)	9/5/1998 6:03:00 AM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

just a few ideas more - without comments: step 1: US-economy was going through the best of all times. That means also high private consumption, high private debt. To "spare" was neither something for the US-individuum nor for the country. Despite "bad times" f.e. the German or the Japanese export/import relation was positive but negative in US. As usual, a great part of US-productions and services was brought for the own market. All together a huge bunch of money-cycles. step 2: Worldwide upcoming "crizises" have no really influence in US-related business but destroy worldwide capital. step 3: A lack of capital draws money out of the stock-markets. Huge amounts of capital was flowing to swizzerland - not alone from Russia. I remember a number - I'm not sure - of more than 300 bio. US$ alone from Russia. That's more than the overall-loss of Japanese exchanges from last week and by far more than a fair price for the whole Russian economy. Despite this unimportance of Russia US-markets are more nervous from Russia than from Japan. step 4: The so called "domino-effect" will "infect" one country after the other - depending from their individual situation sooner or later, and it's clear, that the biggest part of the lost money will be withdrawed from US-exchanges. step 5: It's an interesting question, how long an average US-consumer can show how the markets dump (including his own retirement-funds) without losing his patience. This will amplify the effect esp. for the finance- and investment-branches. step 6: How long will an average US-familie continue to buy all this shit nobody needs, produced from our great economy from Daimler-Benz to Adidas? This will lower resume- and gain-expectations, followed by additional pressure on the markets. There will also come a time when we have learned that a merger of former successful but actually heading difficulties companies will not create a new industry-sensation. step 7: While most European countries have learned to handle their economy-crizis (more or less well), however, I cannot see any signs of a real instability, US-public seems to believe that the recent boom comes from their personal evidence. In contrary to the (peace-loving) Russians, USA used to find a new place for a war everytime when internal problems grew too far - a "negative spiral" like our "friend" B.G.II. would say. It's not improving the export when you destroy material and humans elsewhere. step 8: During a period of stability in USA the US$ was a well loved currency for money-thiefts worldwide. In a possible period of internal crizis in USA, a lot of these "sparers" will consider to change in "harder" currencies. Good times for a coming "Euro", also - perhaps - a rescue for the good old sfr. step 9: We all can count our money and realize the results. Just "brain"*-storming. Happy weekend! Jury re. "brain" (out of a "Stern"-story): I read a remark that you cannot call it "intelligence" if a species is able to make sure his own undergoing. Obviously the so called "killer-whal" has a n-times larger brain and do not use power in meaningless situations. It's not clear if such a dolphin can understand human idioms but it's sure that we cannot understand their communication: another sign for a relation between brain-capacity and intelligence?