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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary who wrote (832)	9/5/1998 7:12:00 AM
From: sea_urchin	Respond to of 81821

Gary : That is very interesting. It would be even more interesting to know how PEI arrived at that forecast of $190. Or even $235. As I explained, I do not have convergence between my two models as to the expected bottom for the POG. It was because I was worried that the 1980 bubble at $850 had skewed the analysis that I redid it from 1982, when the price stabilized between $500 and $280. Therefore, although it is shorter, I believe the 16 year model is more accurate --- although I am reluctant to admit it --- even to myself. As I mentioned, this shows a bottom for the gold price at about $245, at last month's prices. And a top, for your interest, at about $315. So, quite clearly, there's not a helluva big upside. With a range of $70, from the bottom parameter to the top, the present price of about $280 is more or less in the middle. To add to my confusion, I might mention that the models for the SAfrican golds (in Rands, $US or KRs) show that they have already hit the bottom and are on their way up. For this reason, I am not sure whether the 20 year model, which shows a significant bottom now, is not the correct one! I guess only time will tell.