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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (724)	9/4/1998 9:24:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 15132

Re: "Isn't he making news here and saying the Fed went to a neutral stance in August or was that already known as the case? Sounds to me like a rate cut soon may be a bigger probability than some pundits have said though supposedly some Fed officials were recently trying to downplay that possibility." I agree - it sounds like the Fed went to a neutral bias. I haven't heard any Fed officials indicate that before now, but Bob did make that projection last weekend. Best wishes, I2

To: marc ultra who wrote (724)	9/4/1998 9:28:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Marc: "Isn't he making news here and saying the Fed went to a neutral stance in August or was that already known as the case? Sounds to me like a rate cut soon may be a bigger probability than some pundits have said though supposedly some Fed officials were recently trying to downplay that possibility." Yes, I suppose it is news but really just confirmation of what was speculated by the markets. But more importantly Greenspan hinted that he may move beyond neutral to an easing posture: " By the time of the Committee's August meeting, the risks had become balanced, and the Committee will need to consider carefully the potential ramifications of ongoing developments since that meeting." The Fed always telegraphs its intentions and I read an easing is coming down the pike. Rally news? I think so. The issue is not if the Fed will ease, but when and I think sooner rather than later. Next Fed. meeting, Sept. 29th. But look at this. This is real news in my opinion. In my mind, Greenspan is saying that if the market decline has a real effect on the US economy, he will lower rates: "As I argued earlier, part of capital gains increases consumption and incomes. Since equity values are demonstrably more variable than incomes, when equity market values become large relative to incomes and GDP, their fluctuations can be expected to effect GDP more than when equity market values are low." Well, I thought all the talking heads said Greenspan did not give a rat's behind about the market? Think again.

To: marc ultra who wrote (724)	9/5/1998 1:55:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

buying opportunity. Keep in mind as has been noted before some of these non presidential election years Bob has made a big deal about came off of quite substantial drops. It looks like this one has a good chance of having a bottom of about 7400 and I think Greenspan's comments can only be positive. The substantial destruction of wealth many have gone through will be followed by impressive creation of wealth as Bob's buying opportunity goes from looking like a disaster to another good call looking back 3 or 6 months down the road. I am looking forward to Bob proclaiming again that other than this unfortunate blip all further surprises will be on the up side. For the official record books though it would be very nice if we never close that 20% down official bear market number. Looking at the BB threads the fear and trepidation is overwhelming and is multiplied when you look at other non BB sites. We are beyond cleansing the nervous nellies out and now the bedrock bullish investors are becoming nervous nellies. Time for a big fat rally and if today's turn around point turns out to be the inflection point we may return to land of happy campers soon as net worth resumes its upward climb. If we are ready to resume the bull market climb the last thing I would care about is trying to pick areas of overhead resistance at this point Marc