To: Don Green who wrote (6976 ) 9/5/1998 3:41:00 AM From: Michel Bera Respond to of 93625
Don, More and more economic papers are talking now about US economy ending its current fabulous cycle. For the last three years, many people were making more money with their retirement portfolio going to new heights than with their salaries. If current market correction (Nasdaq is already in a bear market, if I read correctly) goes deeper, there may be a new attitude : don't you bet the ranch, will say Lucy to Rick. To keep consumers buying in shopping malls at an equal level, money may have to come from salary raises (super-riches have been richer and richer, but medium and low salaries have been definitely going down since a while, and there so many much more of them !), as current strikes such as Northwest show, or from selling some parts of their retirement portfolio (its been going up sooooo fast), which would build a bear market, and so on. The good news are that an aging US baby-boomer population will create a huge demand for service-oriented jobs such as special food, health care. That is why US has a fabulous 4% unemployment rate, compared to my poor country (who is not enough service-oriented) 12% !! As for Rambus, I see all those factories cancelling their new projects or even closing existing facilities. Before scarce supply makes DRAM prices go up, should not we consider that demand may be slowing much faster than expected ? I am still long and await also next week technology conference (though I remember that last year, RMBS was in his big, ugly,roller-coaster downside at the time, and the conference was not much of any help). May all of you have a beautiful week-end. Betty, where are those long skirts ? not in Paris !! MiB